Provincial Forecast

Get the latest Canadian economic forecasts to fully understand Canada’s provincial economic stance.

Canadian Economics    March 29, 2023

With the fiscal shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic fading into the background, the federal government is now repositioning itself to address some of the structural issues ahead.

Commentary  •  12-min read

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Coming Out of the Fog: Provincial Outlook

Canadian Economics    March 29, 2023

Signs still point to a slow performance for the economy in the year ahead, but the fog of uncertainty appears to be clearing. Worst-case scenarios of a protracted recession or highly destabilized labour and capital markets are becoming less likely.

Online experience  •  2-min read

Sprinting to Surplus: Our Analysis of the Ontario Budget 2023

Canadian Economics    March 24, 2023

Despite the Ontario budget having the highest price tag for any provincial budget ever, the province’s revenue windfall means it will be ahead of schedule getting to surplus.

Commentary  •  5-min read

Right Idea, Wrong Timing? Our Analysis of Quebec’s Budget 2023

Canadian Economics    March 22, 2023

The Quebec Government issued Budget 2023 on Tuesday, putting forward tax cuts and additional spending at a time when inflation remains a concern.

Commentary  •  5-min read

Female traveler on canoe at Jasper National Park.

Driving Growth by Following Opportunities: Provincial Outlook to 2045

Canadian Economics    March 15, 2023

The lingering COVID-19 virus, supply chain challenges, war in Ukraine, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in China and neighbouring countries take up much of our thoughts on what lies ahead, but many of those issues will fade as time goes on. Undoubtedly there will be other bumps and disruptions globally along the way over the next 20 years.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Woman shopping in a clothing boutique

Households Continue to Feel Inflation’s Squeeze: Index of Consumer Confidence

Canadian Economics    March 8, 2023

Higher interest rates have affected consumer sentiment toward major purchases—most responders believed February wasn’t a good month to spend on big-ticket items. But households are also facing rising food prices.

Online experience  •  8-min read

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Growth in Consumer Spending Recovers: Index of Consumer Spending

Canadian Economics    March 2, 2023

The ICS climbed 11.0 points between the weeks of December 11 and December 25, pushing past the 100.0-point benchmark for the first time in 27 weeks. This recovery was mainly driven by holiday spending. The upward trend was short-lived, however, as growth in consumer spending decelerated in the first two weeks of January.

Online experience  •  8-min read

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Demographics Rule the Day: Canadian 20 Year Outlook

Canadian Economics    February 21, 2023

We expect the global economy to regain some balance, and the further advancement of developing economies will provide both new markets for Canadian sales and new sources of competition. The passing of the baby-boom generation through their retirement years will drive consumption patterns toward health, lifestyle, and home services spending before evening out once again. In their place, the influence of younger new Canadians will set the tone for home trends and workplaces.

Online experience  •  8-min read

On the Heels of a Successful Summer: Travel Markets Outlook

Canadian Economics    January 24, 2023

In many places, the pace of tourism’s rebound pushed beyond what the industry was prepared to handle. Frenetic activity at airports and passport offices made national headlines. But despite these challenges, the tourism sector’s recovery began in earnest. From this new vantage point, what will the next phase of the recovery look like?

Online experience  •  8-min read

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Urban Growth

Canadian Economics    January 23, 2023

Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, and Calgary are the biggest census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in Canada and have been major drivers of growth in the country. With a combined economic output of nearly $870 billion in 2019 (real 2012 dollars), their sheer size suggests that they’ve played an important role in shaping and driving the Canadian economy over time.

Issue briefing  •  15-min read

Canadian Industries are Writing a New Chapter: Industry Lens

Canadian Economics    January 20, 2023

As businesses across Canada embark on a new era, there are plenty of bright prospects across several industries in the Canadian economy. But which sectors will come out ahead?

Online experience  •  8-min read

Shocks and Struts: Canada’s Three-Year Outlook

Canadian Economics    October 18, 2022

The main forces shaping Canada’s economic outlook have changed little over the past several months, but they have evidently become more intense. The result will be a virtual stoppage of economic growth in this country. Whether the economy steers past a recession will depend on the robustness of its shock absorbers.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Signs of Slowdown: Manufacturing Sales, Volumes Both Decline in August

Canadian Economics    October 14, 2022

Rapid interest rate hikes may finally be catching up. With the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate higher than it has been for over 14 years, it was only a matter of time before a slowdown came. The decline in manufacturing volumes in August may signal that that time has come.

Quick take  •  3-min read

Pedro Antunes

Meet Our Expert

Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist

Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist and primary spokesperson at The Conference Board of Canada. He provides insights and general direction for the Board’s economic products, including reports and economic indicators that relate to Canada and its regions and sectors.

Tepid September Job Numbers Cap Off a Sluggish Third Quarter

Canadian Economics    October 7, 2022

Recent months have seen a growing number of Canadians leave the workforce due to retirement. In September, 294,500 Canadians left their job in the previous year due to retirement. Retirements fell during the pandemic amid concerns over the rising cost of living and as pandemic restrictions, such as the inability to travel, incentivized many to delay their exit from the workforce.

Quick take  •  3-min read

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The “Canadian Experience” Disconnect

Immigration    October 4, 2022

Canada has increasingly relied on international students and temporary foreign workers as future permanent residents over the last decade. The pandemic has further reinforced this trend. More immigrants with pre-admission work or study experience in Canada were admitted during the pandemic than in the preceding five years.

Impact paper  •  31-min read

Manufacturing Sales Sees Decline in June Led by Petroleum and Coal Products

Canadian Economics    August 15, 2022

Over-reliance on the U.S. market could hurt the Canadian auto sector in the long-run. In late July, Canadian automakers were relieved to hear that U.S. lawmakers finally agreed to propose an amendment to the Inflation Reduction Act, which would move away from only providing tax credits to American-made electric vehicles.

Quick take  •  2-min read

Transitioning to Jobs in the Clean Economy

Innovation & Technology    July 28, 2022

One in five Canadian employees works at a job that’s vulnerable to automation. The clean economy is a rapid-growth sector that needs workers. Is there a way to solve for both? Employees working high-risk, low-mobility jobs have few options to transition into lower-risk occupations without undergoing retraining.

Online experience  •  8-min read
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Manufacturing Sales Fall Even as Prices Soar

Canadian Economics    July 14, 2022

Even on the back of rising prices, nominal manufacturing sales fell in May. In our latest national forecast, manufacturing output growth will slow but is not expected to turn negative this year. But, as recessionary winds blow stronger, the near-term risks to manufacturing sales are tilting to the downside.

Quick take  •  2-min read

Understanding the Gap 2.0: A Pan-Canadian Analysis of Prescription Drug Insurance Coverage

Health    July 13, 2022

We estimate that 36.8 million Canadians (or 97.2 per cent of the population) are eligible for some form of prescription drug coverage across the country. The uninsured gap in coverage—defined as the number of people not eligible for a public plan and not enrolled in a private plan—is under 1.1 million people, or 2.8 per cent of the Canadian population.

Data briefing  •  13-min read