Provincial Forecast

Get the latest Canadian economic forecasts to fully understand Canada’s provincial economic stance.

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Canadian Economics    July 18, 2024

The public thirsts for the economy to return to normal—and indeed, prices and interest rates have begun moving in that direction. Normality, however, will be an elusive concept. Although our baseline forecast brings economic growth back to rates similar to those of a decade ago, the drivers—and the risks ahead—will be different.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Turning Point Ahead: Provincial 5-Year Outlook

Canadian Economics   July 16, 2024

All eyes and ears are on North America’s central bankers to begin trimming interest rates. Canadian businesses and consumers are more than ready for the move—higher borrowing costs have brought the private sector economy to a virtual standstill.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Interest Rate Cut Has Only Struck a Minor Chord with Consumers So Far: Index of Consumer Confidence

Canadian Economics   July 15, 2024

The Bank of Canada’s first interest rate cut since March 2022 drove modest consumer confidence gains. Canadians breathed a sigh of relief after the interest rate announcement earlier this month.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Spending Sees Another Increase in May Driven by Strong Population Growth: Index of Consumer Spending

Canadian Economics    July 10, 2024

As inflation continues to drop, the Bank of Canada is expected to cut its interest rates further, which will make durable goods easier to finance. This will support consumer spending over the next couple of years.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Green Shoots of Renewal Emerge in May: Canadian Hiring Index

Canadian Economics   June 19, 2024

This month’s CHI results provide further evidence that labour demand in the economy is beginning to stabilize after many months of decline. While businesses remain understandably cautious, the recent decision to cut interest rates in Canada is a signal that inflationary pressures are under control. As sentiment improves, we expect hiring to pick up in the latter half of the year.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Stuck in a Holding Pattern: Travel Markets Outlook

Canadian Economics   June 19, 2024

For an industry that’s desperately seeking a return to normal, the year ahead will remain atypical. Canada’s tourism operators continue to face off against the incomplete recovery of international visitors and a domestic market that is financially constrained.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Summer Sunshine Fails to Reach the Labour Market in May

Canadian Economics   June 7, 2024

The economy has now added a monthly average of 39,000 jobs over the first five months of the year, a respectable pace given the headwinds caused by high interest rates. However, these gains pale in comparison to the growth of Canada’s working age population, which this year has grown at a searing pace of over 100,000 per month, or, in annualized terms, 3.7 per cent.

Quick take  •  2-min read

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April Showers Didn’t Dampen the Labour Market

Canadian Economics    May 10, 2024

In a weaker business environment, hiring across the economy has slowed. April was an exception to generally softer labour demand, but the fundamentals so far in 2024 remain on the weaker side. Rising labour supply and falling demand is reducing tightness in the labour market. Lower competition for workers is gradually weighing on wage growth, which we expect to decelerate further over the coming months.

Quick take  •  3-min read

A Need to Shift Gears: Canada’s Outlook to 2045

Canadian Economics    January 15, 2024

Canada’s economy is beginning its path toward the next 20 years from a standing start. With zero growth through most of 2023 and into 2024, the nature of how well it can recover structurally will set the tone for Canada’s long-term prospects.

Impact paper  •  20-min read

Chill Lingers in the Labour Market as Winter Recedes

Canadian Economics   April 5, 2024

Little excitement as torpor prevails in Canada’s labour market. In the face of high interest rates, firms are navigating lower demand for goods and services. Hiring in the economy has slowed and weaker labour demand is translating into subdued employment growth.

Quick take  •  3-min read

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Economic Reboot: Provincial Outlook to 2045

Canadian Economics   April 8, 2024

The underlying growth potential of Canada’s economy will come from three main sources: the number of people added to the population and more particularly the workforce; the amount and mix of capital used in production processes and the technological improvements adopted along the way; and outside global forces that affect trade flows and spending patterns.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Index Resumes Its Descent in October: Canadian Hiring Index

Canadian Economics   November 29, 2023

October’s results indicate a broad-based slowdown in labour demand. As businesses grow more cautious due to weakening demand for goods and services, hiring activity is slowing. The unemployment rate moved up to 5.7 per cent in October with labour force growth again outpacing employment growth.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Rocket launching into space

Launching Canada’s Space Sector: Economic Impact of Spaceport Nova Scotia

Canadian Economics    May 16, 2023

Canada’s first commercial spaceport—Spaceport Nova Scotia, a world-class facility to place satellites into polar and sun-synchronous orbits—is on track to be sited in Nova Scotia. It will be the first commercial launch complex in Canada. The satellites placed from here will lead the world in environmental monitoring, earth observation, imaging, broadband, and telecommunications.

Data briefing  •  19-min read

Pedro Antunes

Meet Our Expert

Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist

Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist and primary spokesperson at The Conference Board of Canada. He provides insights and general direction for the Board’s economic products, including reports and economic indicators that relate to Canada and its regions and sectors.

Clean and Green but Not Very Lean: Our Analysis of the Federal Budget 2023

Canadian Economics    March 29, 2023

With the fiscal shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic fading into the background, the federal government is now repositioning itself to address some of the structural issues ahead.

Commentary  •  12-min read

Sprinting to Surplus: Our Analysis of the Ontario Budget 2023

Canadian Economics    March 24, 2023

Despite the Ontario budget having the highest price tag for any provincial budget ever, the province’s revenue windfall means it will be ahead of schedule getting to surplus.

Commentary  •  5-min read

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The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Indigenous Tourism Businesses in Alberta

Indigenous & Northern Communities    May 19, 2023

Based on the revised inventory, our findings indicate that at least 202 entrepreneurs and organizations participate in Alberta’s Indigenous tourism sector. These industries account for more than 30 Indigenous businesses and more than 75 per cent of all businesses. The gaming industry accounts for only five businesses, but most of them are significant employers.

Data Briefing  •  10-min read

Right Idea, Wrong Timing? Our Analysis of Quebec’s Budget 2023

Canadian Economics    March 22, 2023

The Quebec Government issued Budget 2023 on Tuesday, putting forward tax cuts and additional spending at a time when inflation remains a concern.

Commentary  •  5-min read

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Urban Growth

Canadian Economics    January 23, 2023

Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, and Calgary are the biggest census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in Canada and have been major drivers of growth in the country. With a combined economic output of nearly $870 billion in 2019 (real 2012 dollars), their sheer size suggests that they’ve played an important role in shaping and driving the Canadian economy over time.

Issue briefing  •  15-min read

Canadian Industries are Writing a New Chapter: Industry Lens

Canadian Economics    January 20, 2023

As businesses across Canada embark on a new era, there are plenty of bright prospects across several industries in the Canadian economy. But which sectors will come out ahead?

Online experience  •  8-min read