Provincial Forecast

Get the latest Canadian economic forecasts to fully understand Canada’s provincial economic stance.

Canadian Economics    February 12, 2025

Canada’s economy will need to navigate a long sequence of challenges over the next 20 years. Demographic shifts will lead to gaps in the labour market and put pressure on government finances. The march toward lower greenhouse gas emissions will limit investment in Canada’s abundant oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, climate and geopolitical risks will remain escalated, adding another threat to the country’s long-term prosperity.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Index of Consumer Confidence For January 2025

Canadian Economics   February 10, 2025

The effects of U.S. tariffs on Canada’s consumer confidence would be substantial. Trade tariffs imposed by the United States would likely impact consumer views across all categories: current and future finances, job prospects, and major purchases. Tariffs would weaken the Canadian dollar, effectively raising the price of U.S. goods imported into Canada.

Online experience  •  8-min read

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Positive Job Print Ends Rollercoaster Week

Canadian Economics   February 7, 2025

The economy continues to churn out jobs, a welcome signal of resilience and recovery. A third consecutive monthly employment increase and weaker labour force growth together helped to reduce the unemployment rate, a trend we expect to continue given the weaker outlook for population growth.

Quick take  •  2-min read

Red Sky in the Morning: Canadian Outlook

Canadian Economics    February 6, 2025

After a sluggish second half to 2024, the Canadian economy looks set to push the pedal a little harder in 2025. Interest rates have fallen swiftly since June, and the Bank of Canada will shave another 75 basis points off its policy rate by April. These lower borrowing costs will encourage consumers to spend and business to invest, resulting in a steady increase in per capita real GDP through the year, a reversal of fortunes from 2024.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Canadian Hiring Index for January 2025

Canadian Economics    February 3, 2025

Hiring activity has flatlined in recent months, reflecting uncertainty among businesses over the Canadian economy. An impending slowdown in population growth, domestic political turmoil, and the threat of new trade barriers have prevented lower inflation and falling interest rates from restoring confidence in Canada’s business community, slowing the pace of hiring.

Online experience  •  8-min read

December Delivers: Risks Loom, but Jobs Stay Strong

Canadian Economics    January 10, 2025

Today’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) results for December complete a year in which Canada’s labour slackened amid weakening labour demand and strong labour force gains underpinned by surging international migration. Over 2024, the unemployment rate rose from 5.7 per cent in January to 6.7 per cent in December.

Quick take  •  2-min read

Spending Turns Up in September and October: Index of Consumer Spending

Canadian Economics    December 13, 2024

Lower consumer spending in the majority of the east coast provinces is not unexpected although it comes at a slightly later time this year than historical patterns. Historically, spending in these provinces withdraws around September, partially due to their hurricane season.

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Growth Rekindled: Provincial Outlook

Canadian Economics   December 13, 2024

Now that inflation is falling and the Bank of Canada is well on its way in its cutting cycle, the economy is set to face fewer headwinds in 2025. The Bank of Canada followed up its initial rate cut in June with three more, reducing its key interest rate by another 100 basis points by the end of October.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Unemployment Rate Rises as Job Seekers Left Out in the Cold

Canadian Economics   December 6, 2024

In 2024, Canada’s labour market continued to cool as employment struggled to keep with pace with robust labour force gains. The unemployment rate is on track to average 6.3 per cent in 2024, above the averages of 5.3 and 5.4 per cent recorded in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Quick take  •  3-min read

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Jaded in July: Labour Force Contracts and Jobs Flatline

Canadian Economics   August 9, 2024

In July, employment in Canada was little changed on the previous month, marking a third consecutive month of stagnant job growth. The size of the labour force fell by 11,000, the first contraction since June 2022. This decline was fuelled by lower labour force participation among young men and women. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4 per cent.

Quick take  •  3-min read

Summer Sunshine Fails to Reach the Labour Market in May

Canadian Economics   June 7, 2024

The economy has now added a monthly average of 39,000 jobs over the first five months of the year, a respectable pace given the headwinds caused by high interest rates. However, these gains pale in comparison to the growth of Canada’s working age population, which this year has grown at a searing pace of over 100,000 per month, or, in annualized terms, 3.7 per cent.

Quick take  •  2-min read

April Showers Didn’t Dampen the Labour Market

Canadian Economics    May 10, 2024

In a weaker business environment, hiring across the economy has slowed. April was an exception to generally softer labour demand, but the fundamentals so far in 2024 remain on the weaker side. Rising labour supply and falling demand is reducing tightness in the labour market. Lower competition for workers is gradually weighing on wage growth, which we expect to decelerate further over the coming months.

Quick take  •  3-min read

Stuck in a Holding Pattern? Travel Markets Outlook

Canadian Economics   October 3, 2024

For an industry that’s desperately seeking a return to normal, the year ahead will remain atypical. Canada’s tourism operators continue to face off against the incomplete recovery of international visitors and a domestic market that is financially constrained.

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Pedro Antunes

Meet Our Expert

Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist

Pedro Antunes is the Chief Economist and primary spokesperson at The Conference Board of Canada. He provides insights and general direction for the Board’s economic products, including reports and economic indicators that relate to Canada and its regions and sectors.

Chill Lingers in the Labour Market as Winter Recedes

Canadian Economics   April 5, 2024

Little excitement as torpor prevails in Canada’s labour market. In the face of high interest rates, firms are navigating lower demand for goods and services. Hiring in the economy has slowed and weaker labour demand is translating into subdued employment growth.

Quick take  •  3-min read

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Economic Reboot: Provincial Outlook to 2045

Canadian Economics   April 8, 2024

The underlying growth potential of Canada’s economy will come from three main sources: the number of people added to the population and more particularly the workforce; the amount and mix of capital used in production processes and the technological improvements adopted along the way; and outside global forces that affect trade flows and spending patterns.

Online experience  •  8-min read

Rocket launching into space

Launching Canada’s Space Sector: Economic Impact of Spaceport Nova Scotia

Canadian Economics    May 16, 2023

Canada’s first commercial spaceport—Spaceport Nova Scotia, a world-class facility to place satellites into polar and sun-synchronous orbits—is on track to be sited in Nova Scotia. It will be the first commercial launch complex in Canada. The satellites placed from here will lead the world in environmental monitoring, earth observation, imaging, broadband, and telecommunications.

Data briefing  •  19-min read

Clean and Green but Not Very Lean: Our Analysis of the Federal Budget 2023

Canadian Economics    March 29, 2023

With the fiscal shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic fading into the background, the federal government is now repositioning itself to address some of the structural issues ahead.

Commentary  •  12-min read

Sprinting to Surplus: Our Analysis of the Ontario Budget 2023

Canadian Economics    March 24, 2023

Despite the Ontario budget having the highest price tag for any provincial budget ever, the province’s revenue windfall means it will be ahead of schedule getting to surplus.

Commentary  •  5-min read

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The Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Indigenous Tourism Businesses in Alberta

Indigenous & Northern Communities    May 19, 2023

Based on the revised inventory, our findings indicate that at least 202 entrepreneurs and organizations participate in Alberta’s Indigenous tourism sector. These industries account for more than 30 Indigenous businesses and more than 75 per cent of all businesses. The gaming industry accounts for only five businesses, but most of them are significant employers.

Data Briefing  •  10-min read