Provincial Outlook to 2045

Facing the Sequence of Challenges

Updated: March 23, 2022  |  Français

The pandemic is refusing to go away quietly, leaving an indelible mark on short- and long-term prospects for the provincial economies. The rebound in output and employment to their pre-pandemic highs is nearly complete, but the COVID virus’s nasty habit of morphing into new variants is keeping Canada from getting to the next stage—reclaiming lost economic potential.

Even in recovery, the economy is creating its own backwash. As consumers have diverted more of their spending from services to goods, the delicate balance of shipments worldwide has been overwhelmed, forcing prices up as a result.

Even as these effects settle in the longer term, buying and selling patterns will have been permanently altered worldwide, bringing a new set of opportunities and constraints to the marketplace.

  • Overview
  • Newfoundland and Labrador
  • Prince Edward Island
  • Nova Scotia
  • New Brunswick
  • Quebec
  • Ontario
  • Manitoba
  • Saskatchewan
  • Alberta
  • British Columbia

Key findings

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Pandemic-related stresses will give way to longer-term shifts in the provincial economies.

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Births will no longer outnumber deaths in Canada, leaving immigration as the only net source of population growth. The Atlantic provinces and Quebec will see this the most.

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The age profile of the workforce and the way the economy gets its energy will generate new pathways for business capital investment. But Canada will face a competitive international marketplace when it comes to selling its innovations.

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The federal government ran up the bulk of pandemic-related public debt. However, provincial governments will continue to face fiscal challenges from rising health care and education costs.

Provincial 20-year outlooks

Forthcoming

Après les Boomers, le  Déluge

Issue briefing  |  16-min read
February 14, 2022
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Underinvestment to Hinder Growth

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
March 2, 2022
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Forthcoming

Robust Demographics Smoothing the Challenges Ahead

Issue briefing  |  14-min read
February 14, 2022
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Major Challenges Met With Opportunities

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
March 15, 2022
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Forthcoming

Economy Challenged by Demographic Trends

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
March 23, 2022
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Forthcoming

Demographics Key to Long-Term Economic Growth

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
February 24, 2022
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Forthcoming

Aging Population Presents Problems

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
March 15, 2022
Purchase issue briefing ($705)

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