Canada’s Outlook to 2045

Pushing the Boundaries

Canada’s economy will need to navigate a long sequence of challenges over the next 20 years. Demographic shifts will lead to gaps in the labour market and put pressure on government finances. The march toward lower greenhouse gas emissions will limit investment in Canada’s abundant oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, climate and geopolitical risks will remain escalated, adding another threat to the country’s long-term prosperity.

Canada’s Outlooks to 2045

Demographics and Labour

Immigration, aging population shape Canada’s future 

Month XX, 2025  •  15-min read

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Fiscal Policy

Foggy Path to Balance 

February 12, 2025  •  9-min read

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Households and Housing

Changes, Challenges Abound

Month XX, 2025  •  15-min read

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Business Investment and Energy

Green Frontier Fuels Investment Growth

February 10, 2025  •  16-min read

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Output and Productivity

Potential Output Sets the Course

Month XX, 2025  •  10-min read

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Sectors and Trade

Navigating Softer Demand and a Changing Trade Landscape

February 11, 2025  •  12-min read

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A Need to Shift Gears

Canada’s economy is beginning its path toward the next 20 years from a standing start. With zero growth through most of 2023 and into 2024, the nature of how well it can recover structurally will set the tone for Canada’s long-term prospects. We hold the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are in the final stages of beating inflationary pressures back into submission.

July 17, 2023  •  20-min read

Woman in red jacket is standing at the edge of a cliff enjoying the beautiful ocean scenery.

Aggregate demand

Shifts in Demographics, Clean Energy, and Interest Rates Shaping Economy

January 15, 2024  •  40-min read

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person holding a cellphone looking out into the distance in front of a large windowed building

Canada’s Potential Output

Potential Output Growth Steady Over the Long Term

January 9, 2024  •  10-min read

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Demographics

Surging Population Growth Eventually Wanes

January 11, 2024  •  20-min read

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Energy

Navigating Uncertainty Amid the Green Transition

January 15, 2024  •  14-min read

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Business professional walking outside on the phone with an office building in background.

Fiscal policy

Debt Charges and Healthcare Pose Long-Term Challenges

January 11, 2024  •  10-min read

Forthcoming

Labour markets

Retirements, Migrants, and New Technological Frontiers

January 9, 2024  •  20-min read

Forthcoming

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