Canada’s Outlook to 2045

Long-term Letdown

Our long-term outlook for the Canadian economy takes into account near-term shocks but shifts the focus to the impact of demographic developments on Canada’s economy over the next two decades.

This impact paper updates our long-term forecast completed in the autumn of 2022. We have slightly changed our short-term views on the prospects for the Canadian economy, as real GDP is expected to expand by 0.9 per cent this year, up from a gain of 0.6 per cent anticipated last autumn.

Canada’s Outlooks to 2045

Demographics Rule the Day

We expect the global economy to regain some balance, and the further advancement of developing economies will provide both new markets for Canadian sales and new sources of competition.

January 25, 2023  •  25-min read

Canada’s Potential Output

Potential Output Growth Accelerates Over the Long Term

January 25, 2023  •  15-min read

Forthcoming

Demographics

Can Immigration Offset Population Aging?

January 25, 2023  •  25-min read

Forthcoming

Energy

Challenges, Opportunities, and Uncertainties in the Energy Sector

January 26, 2023  •  20-min read

Forthcoming

Fiscal Policy

Fiscal Situation Remains Challenging

January 26, 2023  •  7-min read

Forthcoming

Labour Markets

Population Aging, Immigration, and Technological Transition

January 26, 2023  •  18-min read

Forthcoming

Monetary Policy

Subsiding Inflation Trims Interest Rates

January 26, 2023  •  15-min read

Forthcoming

Increases in Immigration To Help Offset Effects of Population Aging

Once the pandemic loosens its grip on Canada and the world, economic growth will slow down sharply from the plus 4.0 per cent increase forecast for 2022 as the economy returns to some state of normalcy. Growth prospects are comparatively weak because the aging of Canada’s population will lead to a slowdown in labour force growth, which will limit consumer and investment spending.

November 23, 2021  •  36-min read

Aggregate Demand

Demand Is Shifting Gears

December 17, 2021  •  12-min read

Canada’s Potential Output

Economy Closely Tracks Potential Throughout

November 23, 2021  •  12-min read

Demographics

Population Aging Population Requires Immigration Backfill

November 23, 2021  •  17-min read

Energy

A New Path

November 29, 2021  •  16-min read

Fiscal Policy

Pandemic Leaves Its Mark

November 25, 2021  •  13-min read

Labour Markets

Population Aging Will Shape the Labour Market

November 23, 2021  •  15-min read

Monetary Policy

Economic Effects of Pandemic Could Linger

November 25, 2021  •  16-min read

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