Canada’s Outlook to 2045

A Need to Shift Gears

Canada’s economy is beginning its path toward the next 20 years from a standing start. With zero growth through most of 2023 and into 2024, the nature of how well it can recover structurally will set the tone for Canada’s long-term prospects. We hold the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are in the final stages of beating inflationary pressures back into submission.

Current pricing indicators in Canada and the United States look promising, but despite the ticker tape, we are not calling for a victory parade just yet.

Canada’s Outlooks to 2045

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Aggregate Demand

Shifts in Demographics, Clean Energy, and Interest Rates Shaping Economy

January 15, 2024  •  40-min read

Forthcoming

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Canada’s Potential Output

Potential Output Growth Steady Over the Long Term

January 9, 2024  •  10-min read

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Demographics

Surging Population Growth Eventually Wanes

January 11, 2024  •  20-min read

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Energy

Navigating Uncertainty Amid the Green Transition

January 15, 2024  •  14-min read

Forthcoming

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Fiscal Policy

Debt Charges and Healthcare Pose Long-Term Challenges

January 11, 2024  •  10-min read

Forthcoming

Labour Markets

Retirements, Migrants, and New Technological Frontiers

January 9, 2024  •  20-min read

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Monetary Policy

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Month XX, 2024  •  XX-min read

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Long-term Letdown

Our long-term outlook for the Canadian economy takes into account near-term shocks but shifts the focus to the impact of demographic developments on Canada’s economy over the next two decades.

July 17, 2023  •  17-min read

Demographics Rule the Day

We expect the global economy to regain some balance, and the further advancement of developing economies will provide both new markets for Canadian sales and new sources of competition.

January 25, 2023  •  25-min read

Canada’s Potential Output

Potential Output Growth Accelerates Over the Long Term

January 25, 2023  •  15-min read

Forthcoming

Demographics

Can Immigration Offset Population Aging?

January 25, 2023  •  25-min read

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Energy

Challenges, Opportunities, and Uncertainties in the Energy Sector

January 26, 2023  •  20-min read

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Fiscal Policy

Fiscal Situation Remains Challenging

January 26, 2023  •  7-min read

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Labour Markets

Population Aging, Immigration, and Technological Transition

January 26, 2023  •  18-min read

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Monetary Policy

Subsiding Inflation Trims Interest Rates

January 26, 2023  •  15-min read

Forthcoming

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