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Economy Posts Marginal Gains in November

Canadian Economics January 31, 2023

Following last week’s quarter-point rate hike, the Bank of Canada has signalled plans to hold off on further rises pending further assessment. Inflation is declining and is forecast to fall sharply in the first half of 2023. The Canadian labour market continues to outperform expectations, posting solid employment growth in December.

Quick take • 3-min read
Liam Daly

The Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, Possibly for the Final Time

Canadian Economics January 25, 2023

No reason for interest rates to rise further, given the outlook on inflation and economic growth. Today’s 25 basis point increase makes it the eighth consecutive time the Bank of Canada has raised the policy rate over the past year. On the one hand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has declined from its peak of 8.1 per cent in June 2022 to 6.3 per cent (y/y) last month..

Quick take • 2-min read
Sasan Fouladirad

Inflation Eased in December—But the Path Back to 2 Per Cent Will Be Long

Canadian Economics January 17, 2023

The final inflation report of 2022 has landed—and year-over-year price growth remains aloft. Last year, consumer prices in Canada rose by 6.8 per cent—the highest rate of price growth in Canada since 1982. In December, high rent and rising mortgage interest costs kept shelter price growth elevated.

Quick take • 2-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen

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Business Confidence Declines for the Fifth Straight Quarter As Recession Fears Mount

Canadian Economics October 19, 2022

The Index of Business Confidence falls for the fifth-consecutive quarter, something not seen in fourteen years. During the 2007-08 financial crisis, the Index declined for six-consecutive quarters before reversing course from the first quarter of 2009. Currently, the index has been trending lower consistently since the third quarter of 2021, reflecting the persistent worry Canadian executives have had over the state of the economy.

Quick take • 3-min read
Sasan Fouladirad

There’s a 70 Per Cent Probability of a Recession Next Year

Canadian Economics October 18, 2022

Investor sentiment has declined in Canada. The most recent data show that the yield curve inverted in August and declined further in September. This signals that the market outlook is negative. Historically, yield curve inversions have preceded recessionary periods. However, this does not necessarily indicate that a recession is on the cards.

Quick take • 3-min read
David Ristovski

Signs of Slowdown: Manufacturing Sales, Volumes Both Decline in August

Canadian Economics October 14, 2022

Rapid interest rate hikes may finally be catching up. With the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate higher than it has been for over 14 years, it was only a matter of time before a slowdown came. The decline in manufacturing volumes in August may signal that that time has come.

Quick take • 3-min read
Sean Adams

Tepid September Job Numbers Cap Off a Sluggish Third Quarter

Canadian Economics October 7, 2022

Recent months have seen a growing number of Canadians leave the workforce due to retirement. In September, 294,500 Canadians left their job in the previous year due to retirement. Retirements fell during the pandemic amid concerns over the rising cost of living and as pandemic restrictions, such as the inability to travel, incentivized many to delay their exit from the workforce.

Quick take • 3-min read
Liam Daly

Trade Balance Slides Lower

Canadian Economics October 5, 2022

According to the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), pressures in the supply chain decreased in August. This compounds the easing observed over the past four months showing positive results for the future of trade as we approach the holiday season. Furthermore, shipping rates fell an average of 29 per cent in September as global demand slowed.

Quick take • 2-min read
Momanyi Mokaya

GDP Inches Up As the Weight of Higher Rates Begins To Tell

Canadian Economics September 29, 2022

Rising interest rates are beginning to feed through the economy, causing demand to weaken and growth to slow. Various indexes also suggest that the global supply chain disruptions are also easing. While these are a prerequisites to bringing inflation back to its target rate, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to take its foot off the brake anytime soon.

Quick take • 3-min read
Liam Daly

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