U.S. Outlook to 2045

Long-Term Downward Drift

The U.S. economy outperformed expectations, as it emerged from the pandemic, despite the highly restrictive monetary policy required to bring down soaring inflation. The strength of the labour market and unstoppable consumer spending maintained healthy real GDP growth that allowed the U.S. economy to evade a much-anticipated recession.

January 9, 2024  •  10-min read

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The huge stimulus required to support the economy during the pandemic has been one of the key factors behind the surge in inflation in the U.S. economy. Other factors behind the rising inflation include the severe disruption in global supply chains linked to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The sharply higher interest rates required to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) target will lead to far weaker growth over the near term.

January 26, 2023  •  20-min read

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