Long-Term Downward Drift: U.S. Outlook to 2045—January 2024

This research examines the effects of an aging population, weaker investment spending, and interest rates on economic growth in the U.S. economy through to 2045. Economic growth is expected to slow over the forecast period due, in part, to an aging population and its impact on labour force growth and changes in spending patterns. Will investments in labour and equipment make up for slowing production due to a shortage of workers? Will new technologies play a role here? And what about immigration? Interest rates have remained high, since the pandemic, in attempts to bring down inflation. When can we expect to see inflation meet the Fed’s target range?  We share our outlook for the U.S. economy, including the labour force, consumer spending, interest rates, and investment trends.

Read the impact paper to get our full analysis.