U.S. Outlook

The Bumpy Road to That Elusive Recession

The U.S. economy will record a steep drop in activity in the second half of this year but should avoid slipping into a technical recession. The ongoing strength in labour markets is a key factor behind our outlook.

May 16, 2023  •  15-min read

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Inflation Fever About to Break?

Is the U.S. economy heading into a recession in 2023? If so, how long might it last? When will inflation roll over? These are the key questions hanging over the economy in the new year. Our baseline view is that rapidly increasing interest rates will lead to miniscule real GDP growth of only 0.5 per cent in 2023.

February 10, 2023  •  15-min read


Principal Economist

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