U.S. Outlook

Defying the Odds

While growth remains robust, weakness is emerging on the employment front. The U.S. labour market started the year with hotter-than-expected job creation, reigniting wage gains and inflation. More recently, demand for labour has pulled back and will continue to be restrained. The unemployment rate is expected to remain above 4.0 per cent this year and next.

November 5, 2024  •  10-min read

Previous Release

Proceed with Caution

July 29, 2024

After finishing 2023 with the pedal to the metal, the U.S. economy entered 2024 with the foot off the accelerator. Real GDP increased by 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year, a significant drop from 3.2 per cent the previous quarter and the first quarter below 2 per cent growth since mid-2022. The economy will pick up slightly over the rest of the year, but growth will remain lukewarm.

Online experience  •  12-min read

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Principal Economist

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