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Inflation slipped back but still hot
Quick takeJuly 28, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics
of Canada tapers bond purchases while expecting inflation to remain elevated in the short-term
Quick-takeJuly 14, 2021
Reopening of the economy sparks restart of the labour market recovery
Quick-takeJuly 9, 2021
GDP falls for first time since pandemic began
Quick takeJune 30, 2021
had a difficult spring, but better days are ahead
Quick takeJune 23, 2021
hits a decade high
Quick takeJune 16, 2021
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Updated: June 15, 2021
Canada’s immediate economic prospects have improved since our last long-term update in December 2020, as the rollout of vaccines has boosted business and household confidence. At the same time, labour markets are quickly recovering many of the jobs lost due to the pandemic last year. Overall, we expect real GDP to expand in 2021 and in 2022.
Our long-term forecast remains driven by demographic factors, although some lingering effects from the COVID-19 pandemic could affect economic growth through 2040. The nation’s population will age and also grow more slowly, thus moderating labour force growth.
Contents of the long-term Spring 2021 summary:
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Our long-term outlook envisions modest economic growth, with
immigration and better productivity gains helping to counter the impact
of the last wave of retiring baby boomers on labour force growth.
Fiscal deficits will persist over the long term, as the
federal government will find it challenging to contain spending due to
rising health care expenditures and demands from the provinces and
cities for funding.
The pandemic has added to the trend toward deglobalization,
which emerged during the Trump administration and could persist over the
long term to the detriment of Canada’s exporters.
Investment in Canada’s energy patch will be weak over the
long term because of the winding down of existing projects, a lack of
new projects, and ongoing difficulties in delivering energy to foreign
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