Provincial Outlook

Updated: June 15, 2021  |  Français

Economic Recovery Underway, but Third Wave Hinders Some Provinces.

Expectations for a solid economic recovery in Canada this year are linked to rising vaccination rates and the gradual reopening of the economy.

The surge in new COVID-19 cases last autumn continued in the early part of this year and led to a return of strict lockdowns in many parts of the country. Despite the weakness in lockdown-sensitive sectors such as food and beverage services, arts, and recreation, economic growth held up in the first quarter of this year. Strong activity in the resource sector, manufacturing, and construction has allowed for an upward revision to our growth forecast for 2021 from what we released in our spring Canadian outlook.

Contents of the Provincial Outlook:

  • National overview
  • Provincial overview

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Key findings

The global economic recovery has solidified raw material prices, providing a boost to the recovery in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Rising agricultural prices will help Saskatchewan record one of the strongest GDP gains among the provinces this year.

The recovery in Quebec will benefit from ongoing strength in the construction sector, although labour shortages remain a problem. The province’s exporters should profit from the surge in the U.S. economy linked to massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. However, Quebec’s aerospace industry will remain under pressure due to ongoing weakness in air travel.

Every province in Canada will record a solid economic recovery this year as the return of strict restrictions on activity in the early spring combined with rapid gains in vaccinations is gradually reducing the number of COVID-19 cases. This will pave the way for a healthy economic recovery in the second half of 2021 and into 2022. 

The delay in the recovery in international travel to next year will hurt tourism activity across the Atlantic provinces this summer.

Issue briefings

Provincial two-year outlooks

British Columbia

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back British Columbia’s Two-Year Outlook

13-min read  |  June 14, 2021

Alberta

Forthcoming

Manitoba

Forthcoming

Ontario

Forthcoming

Quebec

Forthcoming

Québec

Forthcoming

New Brunswick

Forthcoming

Nova Scotia

Forthcoming


Previous release

Previous two-year provincial outlooks

British Columbia
Major Projects Off to a Slow Start This Year

11-min read  |  Mar 18, 2021

Alberta
A Better Year Ahead for Alberta’s Oil Industry

13-min read  |  Mar 18, 2021

Saskatchewan
Brighter Days Ahead for the Land of the Living Skies

10-min read  |  Mar 18, 2021

Manitoba
Its Diversified Economy Will Help Manitoba Cope

10-min read  |  March 18, 2021

Ontario
Vaccines Spur Recovery Hopes Ontario’s Two-Year Outlook

10-min read  |  Apr 15, 2021

Quebec
Amid Curfews and Closures, Vaccines Offer a Path to Recovery

15-min read  |  Mar 18, 2021

New Brunswick
Avoiding the Worst of the Pandemic

10-min read  |  Mar 18, 2021

Nova Scotia
Major Projects Boost Nova Scotia’s Economic Recovery

14-min read  |  Mar 18, 2021

Prince Edward Island
Atlantic Bubble Has Burst, but Bright Prospects Ahead

10-min read  |  Mar 18, 2021

Newfoundland & Labrador
A Softer Fall in 2020, a Modest Gain in 2021

11-min read  |  Mar 18, 2021