Provincial Outlook

Provincial economies shift gears; looking to recover lost potential.

Updated: January 11, 2022  |  Français

Prow of shipping container ship; woman looking out over water Prow of shipping container ship; woman looking out over water Woman looking out over water

With the worst of wave four of the pandemic behind us, people and governments can finally start applying more long-term thinking to their plans.

Vaccine mandates have generally replaced occupancy limits as the chief set of COVID-control measures, which is allowing larger groups of people to carry on leisure and business activities. Although there are still plenty of risks involved, there is a chance that mandates themselves could be removed in 2022. Consumers have plenty of built-up savings in their pockets and businesses have many reasons to invest in preparation for the post-pandemic economy.

  • Key Highlights
  • Overview
  • Newfoundland and Labrador
  • Prince Edward Island
  • Nova Scotia
  • New Brunswick
  • Quebec
  • Ontario
  • Manitoba
  • Saskatchewan
  • Alberta
  • British Columbia
  • Appendix A—Methodology

Key findings


Economic recoveries in the provinces are entering a new phase as they re-establish pre-pandemic benchmarks and begin to close their remaining output gaps.


Alberta’s growth will lead the country next year, largely because prices for energy products and other key commodities have recovered strongly. New pipeline capacity and strong demand from the U.S. will spur the province’s economy.


Built-up savings will aid consumer spending plans—particularly in services—in 2022, which, supported by strong commodity prices, will help drive a return to business investment growth. Although demand will be there, strained supply chains and resurgent inflation will hold back progress somewhat.


Ontario is coming out of the strict COVID-19 protocols that limited its performance in 2021. Supply-chain disruptions and semi-conductor chip shortages have also held down the manufacturing sector.

Provincial two-year outlooks


New Pipeline Capacity Delivers Boost to Recovery

Issue briefing  |  13-min read
November 29, 2021
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Convalescent, Not Out of the Woods

Issue briefing  |  16-min read
January 10, 2022
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Looking for Better Days Ahead

Issue briefing  |  11-min read
January 7, 2022
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Light Is Beaming at the End of the Tunnel

Issue briefing  |  10-min read
January 7, 2022
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Risks Overshadow Positive Momentum

Issue briefing  |  13-min read
December 16, 2021
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Vaccine Passport Holders Flock to the Island

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
December 14, 2021
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Closing the Year On Firm Footing

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
December 15, 2021
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Finir l’année sur des bases solides

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
January 11, 2022
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Drought Contributes to Slow Recovery

Issue briefing  |  13-min read
December 15, 2021
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Previous releases

Woman looking out over water

Provincial Economies Get a Boost: Provincial Outlook August 2021

The economic recovery in every province through 2021 and 2022 will be powered by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions on business and social activities, rebounding commodity prices, strong income and wage supports from governments, and a robust U.S. export market.

Impact paper  |  29-min read
August 19, 2021


Rising Oil Prices Boost Alberta’s Prospects

7-min read  |  Aug 19, 2021

British Columbia

Out of the Pandemic, Into the Fire

14-min read  |  Sep 9, 2021


Sustained Recovery Finally in Sight

10-min read  |  Sep 10, 2021

New Brunswick

Bright Second Half to the Year

7-min read  |  Sep 7, 2021

Newfoundland & Labrador

Uncertainty Lingers

7-min read  |  Aug 25, 2021

Nova Scotia

Following Reopening, Recovery Taking Off

10-min read  |  Sep 23, 2021


On the Rebound

7-min read  |  Sep 1, 2021

Prince Edward Island

P.E.I. Looks to Put Pandemic in the Rear-View

7-min read  |  Aug 19, 2021


Momentum Builds as Quebec Reopens

7-min read  |  Aug 25, 2021


Rouverture de économique : le Québec poursuit sur sa lancée

7 min lecture  |  9 sep , 2021


Plenty of Momentum in Canada’s Breadbasket

7-min read  |  Aug 27, 2021

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