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Updated: September 10, 2021 | Français
Canada’s economic growth will be uncharacteristically robust over the next two years as it rebounds from the severe shutdowns in key sectors of the economy in 2020.
The speed of the pandemic-induced decline in the spring of 2020 has been followed by a rapid recovery as restrictions are eased. The remaining slack in the system will help spur strong output growth through the rest of 2021 and into 2022. These forces are broadly similar across the provinces. Effects on their individual economic outlooks, however, will depend on each region’s connections with export markets, commodity outputs, industry structure, and, of course, COVID-19 prevalence.
Contents of the Provincial Outlook:
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The economic recovery in every province through 2021 and 2022 will be powered by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions on business and social activities, rebounding commodity prices, strong income and wage supports from governments, and a robust U.S. export market.
The lifting of Canada’s most severe restrictions on activity in the summer will support Ontario’s struggling hospitality sector, allowing it to rebound sharply in the latter half of 2021 and into 2022. The province’s exporters will benefit from the strong U.S. economy.
Alberta’s growth will lead the country largely because prices for energy products and other key commodities have recovered strongly from the deep cuts early in the pandemic.
The outlook for B.C.’s economy is supported by spending on energy projects and ambitious transit investment in the Lower Mainland. Potential after-effects of a difficult forest fire season are a key downside risk in the immediate term.
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