Provincial Outlook

Updated: September 10, 2021  |  Français

Provincial Economies Get a Boost

Canada’s economic growth will be uncharacteristically robust over the next two years as it rebounds from the severe shutdowns in key sectors of the economy in 2020.

The speed of the pandemic-induced decline in the spring of 2020 has been followed by a rapid recovery as restrictions are eased. The remaining slack in the system will help spur strong output growth through the rest of 2021 and into 2022. These forces are broadly similar across the provinces. Effects on their individual economic outlooks, however, will depend on each region’s connections with export markets, commodity outputs, industry structure, and, of course, COVID-19 prevalence.

Contents of the Provincial Outlook:

  • National overview
  • Provincial overview

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Key findings

The economic recovery in every province through 2021 and 2022 will be powered by the easing of COVID-19 restrictions on business and social activities, rebounding commodity prices, strong income and wage supports from governments, and a robust U.S. export market.

The lifting of Canada’s most severe restrictions on activity in the summer will support Ontario’s struggling hospitality sector, allowing it to rebound sharply in the latter half of 2021 and into 2022. The province’s exporters will benefit from the strong U.S. economy.

Alberta’s growth will lead the country largely because prices for energy products and other key commodities have recovered strongly from the deep cuts early in the pandemic.

The outlook for B.C.’s economy is supported by spending on energy projects and ambitious transit investment in the Lower Mainland. Potential after-effects of a difficult forest fire season are a key downside risk in the immediate term.

Issue briefings

Provincial two-year outlooks

British Columbia

Out of the Pandemic, Into the Fire

14-min read  |  September 9, 2021

Alberta

Rising Oil Prices Boost Alberta’s Prospects

7-min read  |  August 19, 2021

Saskatchewan

Plenty of Momentum in Canada’s Breadbasket

7-min read  |  August 27, 2021

Manitoba

Sustained Recovery Finally in Sight

10-min read  |  September 10, 2021

Ontario

On the Rebound

7-min read  |  September 1, 2021

Quebec

Momentum Builds as Quebec Reopens

7-min read  |  August 25, 2021

Québec

Rouverture de économique : le Québec poursuit sur sa lancée

7-min read  |  September 9, 2021

New Brunswick

Bright Second Half to the Year

7-min read  |  September 7, 2021

Nova Scotia

Forthcoming

Prince Edward Island

P.E.I. Looks to Put Pandemic in the Rear-View

7-min read  | August 19, 2021

Newfoundland & Labrador

Uncertainty Lingers

7-min read  |  August 25, 2021


Previous release

Previous two-year provincial outlooks

British Columbia
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

12-min read  |  Jun 14, 2021

Alberta
Rebounding Oil Prices Boost Alberta’s Prospects

14-min read  |  Jun 23, 2021

Saskatchewan
Natural Resources to Boost Recovery

12-min read  |  Jun 15, 2021

Manitoba
Manitoba Can’t Outrun a Third Wave

12-min read  |  Jun 23, 2021

Ontario
Affordability Issues Cool Housing Markets

14-min read  |  Jun 23, 2021

Quebec
Easing of Restrictions Signals Growth for Quebec

15-min read  |  Jun 23, 2021

New Brunswick
Recovery Resumes After a Difficult Start to 2021

8-min read  |  Jun 23, 2021

Nova Scotia
Recovery Slowed by the Third Wave

12-min read  |  Jun 24, 2021

Prince Edward Island
Isolation Leaves Province Poised for Quick Recovery

11-min read  |  Jun 14, 2021

Newfoundland & Labrador
Growth Belies Underlying Fiscal Issues

13-min read  |  Jun 14, 2021