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Updated: April 15, 2021 | Français
The development and rollout of effective vaccines against COVID-19 has provided optimism that an end to the health crisis is in sight, and that is lifting battered economies all around the world out of the steepest recession in modern times.
The rollout of vaccines started this past December in Canada, and the expectation is that a majority of the population will be immunized by September 2021. However, there are some downside risks to that assumption, as the rollout of vaccines stalled in January and February due to difficulties in obtaining supply from Europe.
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The decline in economic activity in Atlantic Canada last year was lessened somewhat by the region’s ability to limit the spread of COVID-19. This helped P.E.I., for example, to emerge from the pandemic in better economic shape than Central Canada even though it is heavily dependent on the hard hit tourism sector.
The provinces that recorded the smallest declines in economic activity last year will have weaker recoveries in 2021. Conversely, Alberta will enjoy the largest increase in real GDP in 2021 as its plunge of 7.7 per cent in economic activity last year sets the stage for a bigger recovery.
Every province will record a sharp rebound in real GDP growth this year as the rollout of vaccines leads to a gradual lifting of provincial restrictions on economic activity and travel. The recovery will also receive a boost from pent-up demand and the fact that millions of Canadians who managed to keep their jobs ramped up their savings.
GM’s recent decision to ramp up investment in Ontario’s auto sector over the near term will help the recovery there.
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Impact paper | 25-min readNovember 25, 2020
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11 min lecture | 19 jan 2021
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