Provincial Outlook

Rising Prices and Falling Dominoes

Updated: June 21, 2022  |  Français

Man staring at a laptop; Person riding bicycle down a city street Man staring at a laptop; Person riding bicycle down a city street Man staring at a laptop

Domestic economic challenges related to the pandemic’s Omicron wave are starting to fade and are being replaced by challenges from afar. Apart from some modest federal masking mandates, vaccine requirements at the borders, and a few holdover policies in the provinces, economies pretty much opened up across the board this spring. Commerce leapt to life and labour markets tightened to degrees we have not seen in generations.

Omicron’s BA.2 wave held back the pace of business a little, largely because of high rates of absences from work. But the economy’s engine is now running hot. International trade and price influences are largely to blame. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended commodity markets and sent prices for energy and agricultural commodities soaring.

  • Overview
  • Newfoundland and Labrador
  • Prince Edward Island
  • Nova Scotia
  • New Brunswick
  • Quebec
  • Ontario
  • Manitoba
  • Saskatchewan
  • Alberta
  • British Columbia

Key findings

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Russia’s storming of Ukraine and COVID’s storming of China are pushing prices past the boiling point.

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While demographics will remain a drag on the Atlantic economies, the region will get a boost from a rebound in tourism.

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The central bank’s response to inflation is just getting started, but interest rate hikes will put attention on the housing sector.

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Net effects keep Canada on the growth path. The trend is toward more moderate expansion, and labour will remain in short supply.

Provincial two-year outlooks

Forthcoming

Forthcoming

The Fog of War Drifts West

Issue briefing  |  14-min read
June 7, 2022
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Forthcoming

Brighter Days Ahead

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
June 15, 2022
Purchase issue briefing ($705)

Forthcoming

Investment Shines Through the Clouds

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
June 14, 2022
Purchase issue briefing ($705)

Forthcoming

Light at the End of the Tunnel

Issue briefing  |  11-min read
June 21, 2022
Purchase issue briefing ($705)

Previous releases

Woman in coat and backpack walking down long hallway

Inflated Risks on the Path Ahead

The Omicron wave of the pandemic has been sharper and much shorter than COVID-19’s other variants. But as the fifth time around since the pandemic started, this wave exposed the breaking point of government policy measures.

Impact paper  |  29-min read
March 15, 2022

Alberta

Recovery Bolstered by Robust Oil Prices

12-min read  |  April 1, 2022

British Columbia

Waiting for the Sun

11-min read  |  March 30, 2022

Manitoba

Tough Times Won’t Last

11-min read  |  April 13, 2022

New Brunswick

Economic Recovery Remains on Track

11-min read  |  April 4, 2022

Newfoundland & Labrador

Waves Come Crashing Down

12-min read  |  March 25, 2022

Nova Scotia

Recovery on Track in Nova Scotia

12-min read  |  March 25, 2022

Ontario

Housing Markets Provide Cushion for Risks

11-min read  |  March 31, 2022

Prince Edward Island

Recovery Hits a Speed Bump

12-min read  |  April 1, 2022

Quebec

Recovery Shifts Down a Gear

13-min read  |  April 7, 2022

Québec

Le rythme de la reprise ralentit

14-min read  | April 7, 2022

Saskatchewan

Hot Commodities Bring New Investment

12-min read  |  April 5, 2022

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