Full Stop: Canada’s Five-Year Outlook

Full Stop: Canada’s Five-Year Outlook

20 min read

Author: Cory Renner, Doris Chu, Kiefer Van Mulligen, Liam Daly, Maxime Arseneau, Meghan Eibner, Richard Forbes, Robin Wiebe, Ted Mallett


This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

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  • Surging population growth is masking serious structural weakness in the economy.
  • Even with strong population growth, we expect real GDP to show virtually no gains between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.
  • Consumers are parking their spending, but the slowdown is more emphatic in the group most heavily mortgaged.
  • Housing policy is finally gaining governments’ attention, but it remains to be seen if coherent supply solutions will emerge.
  • Labour markets are softening, but the unemployment rate should remain below 6.0 per cent.
  • Export performance will be sluggish behind a weakening world economy, but imports will slow even more, leaving an improvement in net trade balances.
  • The drive to push inflation back down to 2.0 per cent continues, but interest rates at current levels likely can do the job.


Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

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