Uncertainty and volatility will be the dominant themes of 2023. While a global recession is still not The Conference Board base case, regional recessions across mature and emerging and developing economies are almost certain.
Lingering effects of the pandemic, the ongoing war in Ukraine, elevated inflation, tightening monetary policies, and weak growth will characterize the economic outlook globally and for individual economies. Risks remain tilted to the downside and gray swans are manifold.
In 2024, the global economy will likely experience a modest revival as pandemic recoveries should be complete and central banks stop hiking or even cut rates after having tamed inflation. However, growth rates in 2024 and beyond are likely to be below the prepandemic trend.
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