Shocks and Struts: Canada’s Three-Year Outlook

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Shocks and Struts: Canada’s Three-Year Outlook

Pages:19 pages32 min read

Author: The Conference Board of Canada


This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

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Inflation has likely peaked but is more widely spread through the economy, prompting more aggressive monetary tightening in Canada and worldwide.

Canada’s overall output growth will slow to a near standstill until spring 2023. A technical recession is possible, but underlying conditions are working in the economy’s favour.

Consumers will take a spending pause as a result of higher prices and loan costs. Home prices have more to fall.

The commodity price boom sparked by the war in Ukraine will dissipate, but it has left producers with hefty net savings to support hiring, wages, and investment.

Tight labour markets will cool off, and wage gains will not quite match price inflation in the short term, but employment losses will be less severe than in past slowdowns.

Slowing demand in the U.S. and in particular Europe will unsettle the non-energy trade profile.

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