Recession Fears on Hold … for Now: U.S. Outlook to 2027

This quarter, we look at inflation, the deficit, and labour shortages.

With real GDP growth of 1.7 per cent this year, falling to 1.1 per cent in 2024, will the U.S. stave off a serious downturn? Will a decline in inflation boost real wages and household spending? What do ongoing labour shortages mean for businesses and workers? Will the U.S. government reduce its annual deficit or will deficits exceeding US$1 trillion persist into the medium term?

Read the impact paper to get our full analysis.