Economy Watch: European View (September 2022)

Despite a much stronger-than-expected H2 2022, the worsening of the energy crunch, a more aggressive tightening pivot by the European Central Bank, and a second straight month of business activity contraction in the Euro Area all point to an economy that is rapidly losing steam. As a result, we now expect the region’s economy to fall into a shallow and short-lived recession in Q1 2023, except Germany where the economy could start contracting as early as the second half of 2022.