Trade No Longer a Drag: Canada’s Three-Year International Trade Outlook

Row of Canada flags along Detroit River, in Windsor, Ontario, Canada.

Trade No Longer a Drag: Canada’s Three-Year International Trade Outlook

Pages:16 pages30 min read

Author: The Conference Board of Canada


This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on international trade. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

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This quarter, we consider the effects of a weakening Canadian dollar, persistently high global interest rates, and changes in domestic and international demand on the Canadian trade sector.

Will the relative strength of U.S. demand be enough to sustain Canada’s export volumes in the face of softer domestic demand? Have easing supply chain disruptions and the reopening of China’s economy led to the anticipated rebound in economic activity, and how will global trade be affected? We share our outlook for Canada’s international trade activity, including the effects of inflation within the world’s major economies and on Canadian import and export prospects over the period.

Read the issue briefing to get our full analysis.

Key findings
International trade snapshot
Trade outlook
Global inflation down but not out
Weaker U.S. demand won’t hold exports down
Merchandise imports run out of steam
Non-merchandise trade deficit holds steady
Current account steadily improves over the next three years

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