After two years of sustained high interest rates, the end is nigh in both the United States in Canada. The discussion now has turned to when rates will be cut and how quickly further cuts will come. It is expected that the pace of rate trimming will be slower than the recent hikes, but by mid next year, both Canadian and U.S. central banks will achieve a neutral rate of 2.5 percent. This rate is likely to prevail through to 2028.
But many questions remain. Has inflation been thoroughly tamed? Is the risk of a recession fully subsided? And how will this affect the exchange rate?
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