This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on housing. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.
Document Highlights
- Low interest rates, a desire for more living space, and the recovery in employment have energized residential markets. But risks lurk, including further COVID-induced economic weakness, high consumer debt, and continued weakness in oil prices.
- We expect housing starts to ease 2.6 per cent to 210,700 units in 2021 and to hover there in 2022. Starts will slow only modestly thereafter as household formation remains solid.
- Canada’s national average resale price rose nearly 12 per cent in 2020, but growth will cool to 2.4 per cent in 2021. A drop of 1 per cent is our call for 2022, followed by annual price increases of around 2 per cent for 2023–25.
- Housing markets across Canada have strengthened, obscuring pre-pandemic strength in much of Eastern Canada and B.C.’s lower mainland and weakness in Alberta and Saskatchewan—patterns that we expect to resume eventually.
- Work-from-home provisions and the “race for space” have led many big-city commuters to seek more distant homes. This has bolstered resale markets outside of the big cities but curbed demand for smaller downtown units.
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