Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2004

This annual economic forecast presents the long-term outlook for Canada’s provinces, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry, and labour market conditions. Also included is a forecast for Canadian economic indicators and a comparison of GDP by province and industry.

Document Highlight

• Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec will post the strongest economic growth over the long term, while real gross domestic product (GDP) in the remainder of the country will average just 1.8 per cent compounded annually from 2003 to 2025.
• Potential output growth will decelerate in every province over the next 20 years.
• Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, the provinces most affected by the U.S. slowdowns since the middle of 2000, will post better growth as the U.S. economy rebounds in 2004 and 2005 and the Canadian dollar averages closer to $0.70 U.S.
• Thanks to oil projects and development at Voisey’s Bay, Newfoundland and Labrador will post an annual average increase of 4.3 per cent in real GDP from 2002 to 2006.