Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2004

This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

• The Canadian economy will expand by 3 per cent in 2004 and by 3.6 per cent in 2005.
• Quebec and Ontario are expected to enjoy decent growth this year in spite of dollar-dampened exports, as the domestic economy continues to progress nicely.
• Much weaker housing demand and relatively small gains in oil and natural gas production will limit economic growth in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.
• With stronger in-migration and employment gains, growth in British Columbia will accelerate to 3.1 per cent in 2004 and 3.5 per cent in 2005.
• Alberta will lead all other provinces in 2004 and will rank second in 2005, driven by high petroleum prices and sturdy consumer demand.
• Sound growth is projected in Saskatchewan and Manitoba over the near term, thanks in part to the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.