Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Spring 2002

This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights 

Highlights of this issue include:

• Mineral fuel expansion from Terra Nova and Hibernia will drive Newfoundland and Labrador’s real GDP growth to 5.8 per cent in 2002. White Rose, Newfoundland’s third offshore oil project should boost construction in late 2002 and 2003.
• A rebound in agriculture will lift real GDP growth in Prince Edward Island to the second highest ranking in the country this year, while a strong rebound in construction output is expected to lead the way in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
• In Quebec, stellar employment gains, booming housing demand and a recovery in manufacturing activity will push real GDP growth at basic prices to 3 per cent in 2002 and to 4.2 per cent in 2003.
• Led by strong consumer spending and continued strength in residential construction, the Ontario economy avoided a recession in the second half of 2001 and is also expected to post a very healthy increase in the first quarter of 2002.
• An anticipated increase in the most major agricultural crop prices, combined with continued strength in the livestock sector, will allow output in Manitoba’s agriculture industry to grow by 3.4 per cent this year and by a further 2.8 per cent in 2003.
• All in all, total real GDP in the province of Saskatchewan will grow by 2.6 per cent this year, followed by a gain of 3.7 per cent in 2003.
• Unlike the economy of all the other provinces, that of Alberta is expected to slow somewhat in 2002, in part because of weaker exploration and development drilling activity.
• Real GDP growth in British Columbia is expected to come in at a modest 1.8 per cent in 2002.