Economy Watch: Emerging Markets View (June 2022)

Modest downgrades to growth forecasts following looming US recession.

Document Highlights

Emerging economies grew rapidly in 2021—rebounding by an estimated 6.7 percent annual rate following the pandemic-induced recession in 2020. However, GDP growth is likely to moderate this year to 2.9 percent in 2022 while inflation heats up. Incoming Q1 GDP reports suggest solid growth momentum, particularly in Latin America. Nonetheless, we downgraded our 2022 and 2023 forecasts mostly because of a looming US recession in early 2023 and overall weaker than expected growth in China and India. Despite a moderation in the month-on-month pace of inflation across emerging economies in May, overall inflation remains elevated and is broadening beyond food and energy. Continued inflationary pressures are weighing negatively on the outlook, prompting more rate hikes by the monetary authorities.