Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2003

This quarterly executive summary provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook that presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

The Canadian economy is forecast to expand by 3.2 per cent in both 2002 and 2003.

The prospect of near-term inflationary pressures will lead the Bank of Canada to begin a steady string of interest rate hikes starting in the spring of 2003.

The economy will get a boost from strong growth in federal spending in the next budget.

A relatively sluggish U.S. recovery will hurt export growth in 2003, but solid employment growth will keep Canadian consumers in the stores.