Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2001

This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

Current turbulent economic conditions have led to considerable downward revisions to the near-term U.S. forecast. The updated outlook incorporates a mild U.S. recession. Although Canadian growth will be very weak in 2002, we will narrowly miss following the United States into recession.

After reaching 4.4 per cent last year, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to tumble to 1.5 per cent in 2001 and 1.2 per cent in 2002.

The U.S. economy is expected to see a mild recession in the latter half of 2001.

Real exports will drop by 2.7 per cent this year and by a further 1.4 per cent in 2002.

Significant monetary and fiscal stimulus will partly offset near-term weakness.

Growth will accelerate sharply in the latter half of 2002.