Business and Consumers Push Through Slowdown: Ontario’s Two-Year Outlook—September 2022

This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

Real GDP in Ontario is forecast to increase 3.9 per cent this year, but then slow down to 1.7 per cent in 2023 and 2.2 per cent in 2024.

Employment growth will slow in the latter half of this year and into next, rising only 0.3 per cent in 2023.

With inflation increasing this year, growth in real household spending will slow but pick up in the next two years as inflation cools and wages and salaries grow faster.

Business investment growth is to continue, notably the strong investment in electric vehicle manufacturing.

Real international exports will pick up momentum in the second half of 2023 as global demand will start rising and supply chain bottlenecks continue to ease.