United States View: Prospects for Economic Recovery Continue to Strengthen

Strong macroeconomic indicators are bolstering prospects for economic growth in Q1 2021 and beyond. It is critical, however, that US consumers continue to dip into large pools of savings to finance spending, especially on in-person services. Inflationary pressures related to high demand for durable goods may begin to ebb soon but will likely be replaced by service sector-oriented price pressures. While we expect elevated inflation to be transitory, it does pose a risk to the Federal Reserve’s “low for long” monetary policy stance. Finally, while the prospects for the Administrations proposed $2.3 trillion infrastructure and tax plans remain uncertain it does pose an upside risk to economic growth in 2022.