This annual economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook Long-Term report which presents the long-term provincial outlook.
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2008
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2008
Provincial
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- This long-term outlook extends to the year 2030, a time at which baby boomers will have predominantly exited the labour market. A consistent slowing in labour force growth means that Canada’s economic growth will ease steadily, slowing to an annual pace of just 2 per cent in the last few years of the forecast.
- Ontario and Alberta will occupy the two top spots over the long term. While Ontario will be challenged in the near term, the long-term prospects are robust. Alberta’s economy will continue to shine thanks to the development of the oil sands.
- Over the long term, real GDP growth will average 2.1 per cent in British Columbia and 1.4 per cent in Prince Edward Island, as the two provinces become preferred retirement havens for baby boomers. A declining population and the depletion of oil reserves will weigh heavily on Newfoundland and Labrador.
- New Brunswick’s population will start shrinking in 2014 following the completion of megaprojects as will Nova Scotia’s starting in 2023, impeding real economic growth significantly.
- Quebec will weather the U.S slowdown as it benefits from strong demand for aerospace products in the near term.
- More favourable immigration will help population growth hold steady in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
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