Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2001

This quarterly executive summary provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the provincial economies was generally modest in the fourth quarter of 2000 and again in the first quarter of 2001. The overall weakness in growth in those two quarters will keep growth at bay for the year 2001 as a whole, with only Alberta expected to post a growth rate above 3 per cent.

Highlights of this issue are:

• Following a slow start this year, real GDP growth is set to pick up in all provinces, leading to much better results in 2002.
• Alberta sidestepped the slowdown in the first half of 2001 and will remain among the growth leaders in 2002.
• Exports are ready to join forces with consumption in central Canada, generating stronger economic growth in 2002.
• Tax cuts will fuel a rebound in growth in British Columbia in the second half of 2001.
• Thanks to Terra Nova, Newfoundland will be the growth leader in 2002, posting a 7 per cent increase in real GDP.