This quarterly examination of the short-term economic outlook for the world’s major economies also contains an in-depth analysis of a number of issues that are relevant for understanding world economic trends and developments.
Hope Amid Despair: World Outlook Economic Forecast—Winter 2021
Hope Amid Despair: World Outlook Economic Forecast—Winter 2021
International
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- Global real GDP dropped 4.3 per cent last year, but the widespread availability of vaccines will boost growth to 5.0 per cent in 2021.
- The U.S. economy should expand by more than 4.0 per cent this year as vaccines and loose fiscal and monetary policies increase employment and income. The main downside risk to the U.S. outlook is a failure to control the spread of COVID-19, which continues to rage in several states.
- The EU economy will benefit from some of the uncertainty removed by a new trade deal with the U.K., which avoided the dreaded “hard Brexit” alternative. However, the deal doesn’t cover trade in services, which has become a rapidly growing part of total trade.
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