Forecasting Transformational Change in the Ontario Health Care System to 2025

As the province with the largest population, Ontario receives approximately 30 per cent of Canada’s health-care budget. The Ontario government’s plan to transform health care is set out in the Budget for 2004 and 2005. Although it seeks higher ‘quality’ health care, the government is vague about how sustainability will be achieved. In 2004–05, the government’s actual health-care spending growth rate was 8.9 per cent compared to the budget target of 5.5 per cent for that year. In this report, we forecast expenditures using baseline, probable and worst-case scenarios, showing that spending will continue to rise significantly, eventually crowding out other social programs. In light of our findings, The Conference Board of Canada believes the province’s projected growth rate of 3.8 per cent by 2007–08 is unrealistic. We provide the Ontario government with policy alternatives to help maintain the sustainability of its health-care system.