Budget du Québec de 2008: L’incertitude économique invite à la prudence

Le budget de 2008 prévoit que la croissance économique du Québec ralentira de 2,4 p. 100 en 2007 à 1,5 p. 100 en 2008 avant de progresser à un rythme plus soutenu, dépassant légèrement les 2 p. 100 à partir de 2009. Ces prévisions sont toutefois plus faibles que celles du Conference Board, qui anticipe une croissance économique réelle de 2,4 p. 100 cette année et de 2,5 p. 100 l’an prochain. D’après notre analyse, l’économie du Québec se porte bien. La forte demande intérieure, soutenue par une croissance solide de l’emploi et de l’investissement, compensera la faiblesse du commerce extérieur. Selon le budget de 2008, le recul du secteur extérieur est surtout attribuable à une forte progression des importations internationales (5,4 p. 100), laquelle retranchera 2,3 points de pourcentage à la croissance économique du Québec cette année.

Quebec Budget 2008: Economic Uncertainty Leads to Careful Budgeting

• Due to a weak economic outlook, the Quebec government is expecting to post deficits over this (2008–09) fiscal year and next. However, by digging into its reserve funds and increasing its take on Hydro-Québec profits, the government has turned Budget 2008 into a balanced budget.
• While this budget contains few substantive measures, it does touch on a number of elements that The Conference Board of Canada considers important. For example, some budget measures have been put in place to encourage investment—a necessity if the province hopes to improve its productivity performance. Moreover, the Quebec government will continue to invest strongly in infrastructure, as previously announced. However, in the view of the Conference Board, the budget should have placed a stronger emphasis on the environment and sustainable prosperity.
• Program spending is set to expand by 4.2 per cent in the 2008–09 fiscal year. That is in contrast to debt-servicing costs that are expected to decline by 1.4 per cent, thanks to lower interest rates. Expenditure categories expected to post strong growth include health, education, spending on family programs, as well as spending on transportation and other infrastructure.
• The Quebec government is expecting to rein in program spending to growth of only 3 per cent in fiscal year 2009–10. This target may be difficult to achieve given that health-care spending has averaged 6 per cent annual growth over the past five years and that the level of health spending now accounts for over 44 per cent of total program spending.
• The budget contains no new personal income tax measures. However, several new
  measures aimed at families have been introduced. These include the creation of an
  additional 20,000 spots in the province’s subsidized daycare program over the next five
  years, as well as an increase in the tax credit for families that are unable to find spots in
  the public daycare program.
• Moreover, the Quebec government is following the federal government’s lead by implementing, at the provincial level, the new tax-free savings account.
• Growth in government revenues will be practically nil in the 2008–09 fiscal year, increasing by just 0.1 per cent. The weakness is partly due to previously announced income tax cuts and a loss of provincial sales tax revenues associated with the decreases in the federal goods and services tax (GST). The loss in revenues due to the GST cuts could have been averted if the Quebec government had applied the provincial sales tax only to the final selling price of goods and services, rather than applying the sales tax on the total price which includes the federal GST.
• Despite the balanced books, the provincial government’s debt will reach $144.9 billion in 2008–09, up from $141.6 billion in the 2007–08 fiscal year. It is important to note that the government of Quebec has applied the auditor general’s recommendations with regards to its accounting of the debt; this has lifted the estimate substantially from that reported in previous budgets.
• The economic forecast underlying this budget seems very conservative—Quebec’s economy is expected to post growth of only 1.5 per cent in 2008. In particular, import growth seems strong. In contrast, the Conference Board expects economic growth to advance by 2.4 per cent this year. Under our forecast assumptions, revenues would be lifted by $700 million—or roughly one percentage point—above the budget estimates.
• The sum of new measures introduced in this budget is limited, suggesting that there will be no effect on overall economic growth.