This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on energy. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.
Document Highlights
The world is more focused on climate change now than ever. The move toward net-zero emissions by mid-century and its inevitable impact on oil demand will shape Canada’s energy sector over the next several decades.
Canada’s oil output will begin to plateau in the early 2030s due to years of under-investment and the electrification of North America’s transportation sector stifling oil demand.
Real oil prices will gradually decline over the long run as global oil demand slows. But the price outlook is full of uncertainty and depends largely on how aggressively countries act on reaching their net-zero emission goals.
If producers want to keep exporting more barrels, they will need to drastically cut emissions from their operations. As such, investments will be geared toward existing and emerging technologies, such as CCUS and hydrogen, rather than on developing new oil and gas fields.
As a low-cost and low-emission fuel, natural gas will see steady growth. New LNG export capacity will also come online around 2025 and will kick-start natural gas exports to Asia.
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