Learning from One Another
Economic and Labour Forecast for Northern Ontario, Yukon, and Nunavut
Français • October 21, 2024
Overview
Learning From One Another: A Comparative Analysis of Labour Market Needs and Corresponding Skills in Northern Ontario, Yukon, and Nunavut is a multi-year collaborative research project led by
The Conference Board of Canada. This project, undertaken for Canada’s Future Skills Centre, drew in various Indigenous, government, and post-secondary partners from Northern Ontario, Yukon, and Nunavut. It features a labour market analysis and economic forecast for each region from 2024 to 2045, as well as descriptions of the in-demand skills and key challenges to workforce and skills development in these Northern regions. This is complemented by an analysis and showcase of training and skills development initiatives across the regions.
See our other Learning From One Another publications (forthcoming) for our in-depth analysis.
The Conference Board of Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Forecasting Models were used to produce economic forecasts and create high, low, and baseline scenarios for Northern Ontario, Nunavut, and Yukon from 2024 to 2045. From the economic forecasts, we constructed occupational-demand scenarios and identified the top 50 occupations by number of job openings for the baseline scenarios.
The methodology and forecasting assumptions for each scenario are detailed in our technical report.
Outlook across the regions
We expect real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be strong in Northern Ontario and Yukon, with slower growth predicted for Nunavut. Conversely, we expect Nunavut to experience the largest per cent increase in employment. Over the forecast period, we expect employment to increase by 5 per cent in Northern Ontario, 18 per cent in Nunavut, and 10 per cent in Yukon.
Between 2024 and 2045, more than half of job openings for the top 50 in-demand occupations in each region will typically require a post-secondary education. Top in-demand occupations across the regions include educational professionals, health care and social workers, and tradespeople.
Implications of the incident at Victoria Gold’s Eagle Gold Mine for Yukon
On June 24, 2024, a heap leach failure occurred at Victoria Gold’s Eagle Gold Mine in Yukon. The implications of this incident for the future operation of the project and mining in the territory are not yet known. However, if the mine were to close, there would be implications for the projections in the Yukon forecast. Closure of the mine would likely result in a short-term decrease in the projections of real GDP in the mining sector but there would be minimal impacts on the employment projections in the forecast. More information on the implications of this incident on the real GDP and employment projections for the Yukon forecast can be found in the technical report.
This research was prepared with financial support provided through the Future Skills Centre. The Conference Board of Canada is proud to serve as a research partner in the Future Skills Centre consortium. For further information about the Centre, visit their website at fsc-ccf.ca.
Many Conference Board colleagues helped to bring this research to life. Adam Fiser, Principal Research Associate, PhD, conceived this initiative and provided oversight throughout the research process. Christopher Heschl, Senior Manager, MA, Jacob LeBlanc, Research Associate, MAE, and Amanda Thompson, Lead Research Associate, PhD, executed the research and Terry Audla, Director, DipET, and Stefan Fournier, Executive Director, MA, provided feedback on early drafts. Sarah Casselman, Senior Graphic Designer designed this online experience.
We also wish to thank our project partners and the members of the research advisory board who supported this research:
- Jackie Price, Vice-President, Nunavut Arctic College
- Government of Nunavut
- Jason Brown, Director, Inuit Employment, Office of the Chief Administrative Officer, Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated
- George Marchewa, Principal Economist, Finance, Government of Yukon
- Anton Solomon, Director, Labour Market Development Branch, Department of Economic Development, Government of Yukon
- Malcolm Taggart, Senior Economic Research Analyst, Government of Yukon
- Christy Huey, Researcher, Yukon University
- Rodney Hulstein, Instructor, School of Business and Leadership, Applied Science and Management Division, Yukon University
- Ninad Dhawle, Senior Instructor, Yukon University
- Chris Stacey, Education Analyst, Yukon First Nation Education Directorate
- Peter M. Turner, Economic Development Analyst, Council of Yukon First Nations
- Lorrie Deschamps, President, Oshki-Pimache-O-Win: The Wenjack Education Institute
- Kim Falcigno, Vice President, Oshki-Pimache-O-Win: The Wenjack Education Institute
- Alura Wynn, Project Assistant Intern, Oshki-Pimache-O-Win: The Wenjack Education Institute
- Gordon Kakegamic, Innovation and Trades Coordinator, Oshki-Pimache-O-Win: The Wenjack Education Institute
- Vivek Krishnan, Trades Program Coordinator, Oshki-Pimache-O-Win: The Wenjack Education Institute
- Michelle Kolla, Secretary Treasurer, Yukon First Nations Chamber of Commerce
- Delmar Washington, Vice-President, Yukon First Nations Chamber of Commerce
- Mellisa Murray, Executive Director, Yukon First Nations Chamber of Commerce
- Albert Drapeau, Former Executive Director, Yukon First Nations Chamber of Commerce
- Dan Paradis, Manager, Community Development, Nishnawbe Aski Development Fund
- Janet Knight, CCP Program Lead, Senior Planner, Nishnawbe Aski Development Fund
- Carol Cline, Dean, Workforce Development, Confederation College of Applied Arts and Technology
- Alcia Brink, Program Manager, Embark, Confederation College of Applied Arts and Technology
- Stephen Maynard, Manager, Results and Economic Intelligence, Federal Economic Agency for Northern Ontario
- Clarice Dale, Policy Advisor, Strategic Planning and Economic Policy Branch, Strategic Policy and Planning Division, Ontario Ministry of Indigenous Affairs and First Nations Economic Reconciliation
The methodology and forecasting assumptions for each scenario are detailed in our technical report:
Real GDP and employment
Strong growth expected in Canada’s North
Over the forecast period, we expect each of the regions to experience real GDP growth in the baseline scenario. We expect Yukon to have the largest growth in real GDP, followed by Northern Ontario and Nunavut. In each area, a handful of sectors are primarily driving that growth.
These changes in real GDP are strongly linked to corresponding changes in employment for the individual sectors, which can be more closely examined in the two charts below and in the Regional findings.
Regional findings
- In the baseline scenario, Northern Ontario’s real GDP is forecast to grow by 20 per cent between 2024 and 2045. The sectors driving this growth are non-commercial services, manufacturing, and finance, insurance, and real estate, which we expect will grow by 26 per cent, 40 per cent, and 22 per cent, respectively. However, we also expect that smaller sectors such as utilities and other primary sectors will see substantial growth.
- We expect employment to grow by 5 per cent in the baseline scenario. The sectors making the greatest contributions to employment growth are non-commercial services, which we expect will increase by 22 per cent, manufacturing by 23 per cent, and commercial services by 2 per cent. And while we predict a decrease in mining employment over the forecast, all three scenarios project substantial growth for that sector until at least 2026.
- In the baseline scenario, we project that Nunavut’s real GDP will rise by 8 per cent over the forecast period. The sectors contributing most to this growth are public administration and defence, which is forecast to grow by 40 per cent, non-commercial services by 50 per cent, and construction by 38 per cent. We also expect significant growth in smaller sectors, including utilities, and other primary sectors. The only sector we expect will see a decrease in real GDP over the forecast period is mining. We project it will peak in the early 2030s before sharply declining to pre-pandemic levels, which will significantly stunt the territory’s total real GDP growth.
- Total employment in the territory is forecast to increase by 18 per cent in the baseline scenario with stable yearly growth. The sectors driving most of this growth are public administration and defence, which we project will increase by 30 per cent, non-commercial services by 18 per cent, and wholesale and retail trade by 24 per cent. As can be expected from the significant decrease in mining’s GDP contribution, we project a 20 per cent decrease in mining employment in the baseline scenario. However, this also depends on whether several new major projects are realized, as we predict a small increase in our high scenario.
- We expect Yukon’s real GDP in the baseline scenario to increase by 41 per cent, mainly driven by a 149 per cent increase in the mining sector and a 41 per cent increase in the finance, insurance, and real estate sector. We also expect construction to experience significant growth in both the baseline and high scenarios until the early 2030s before tapering off and eventually declining by 2045.
- We anticipate the territory’s workforce will grow by 10 per cent over the forecast period in the baseline scenario. We expect the main contributors to total employment growth will be non-commercial services, which will increase by 14 per cent, commercial services by 11 per cent, and public administration and defence by 9 per cent. Although employment in the mining sector is relatively small compared to other sectors in the territory, we expect employment to increase by 42 per cent.
See our other Learning From One Another publications (forthcoming) for our in-depth analysis.
Employment demand
Employment demand by occupation
type and skill level
Demand for post-secondary education is high, with job openings in health care, social services, education, and trades.
In the baseline scenario, many of the top 50 occupations are in high demand across the three regions. Most positions require some form of post-secondary education. However, there will still be demand for positions that require some or no formal education, especially in sales and service occupations. Most openings will be due to replacement demand, which represents positions that employers need to fill to replace workers who have retired, died, or migrated out of the territory.
The skill level and occupation type for the top 50 occupations in demand in the baseline scenario for each region can be more closely examined in the two charts below and in the Regional findings.
See our breakdown of the Top 50 occupations tab in the navigation above for more information.
- In the baseline scenario, approximately 210,500 jobs will need to be filled in the region over the forecast period. The top 50 occupations account for 58 per cent of all openings.
- Fifty-five per cent of the top 50 occupations in the baseline scenario require some form of post-secondary education.
- Looking at occupation types in the top 50 occupations in the baseline scenario, 30 per cent of job openings in Northern Ontario will be in sales and service occupations; 22 per cent will be in trades, transport, and equipment operator occupations; and 17 per cent will be in education, law, and government occupations.
- We expect the top five occupations by number of openings in the baseline scenario to be:
- registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses
- food counter attendants, kitchen helpers, and related support occupations
- social and community service workers
- nurse aides, orderlies, and patient service associates
- retail salespersons and visual merchandisers
- In the baseline scenario, the territory will see just over 14,000 job openings over the forecast period. The top 50 occupations account for 60 per cent of all openings.
- Sixty-two per cent of the top 50 job openings in the baseline scenario require some form of post-secondary education.
- In the baseline scenario in Nunavut, 32 per cent of openings in the top 50 occupations will be in education, law, and government; 23 per cent in sales and service occupations; and 22 per cent in business, finance, and administration occupations.
- We expect the top five occupations by number of openings in the baseline scenario to be:
- retail salespersons and visual merchandisers
- elementary school and kindergarten teachers
- social and community service workers
- administrative assistants
- registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses
- Around 13,500 job openings will need to be filled in the territory over the forecast period in the baseline scenario. The top 50 occupations account for 58 per cent of all openings.
- Sixty-three per cent of the top 50 job openings in the baseline scenario will require some form of post-secondary education.
- Looking at occupation types in the top 50 occupations in the baseline scenario, 25 per cent of openings in Yukon will be in trades, transport, and equipment operator occupations; 24 per cent will be in education, law, and government occupations; and 21 per cent will be in sales and service occupations.
- We expect the top five occupations by number of openings in the baseline scenario to be:
- carpenters
- elementary school and kindergarten teachers
- food counter attendants, kitchen helpers, and related support occupations
- social and community service workers
- administrative officers
Top 50 occupations
This table presents the top 50 occupations by job openings in the baseline scenario over the forecast period, which can be sorted by region, time period, occupation type, and skill level.
FSC partners
