Postings rise in August, but Canada’s labour market continues to slacken
Canadian Hiring Index
In August, at the national level, the Canadian Hiring Index rose by 2.9 points to 111.3 (2018 = 100.0).
Key Trends
- After four months of decline, the Canadian Hiring Index increased in August thanks to a modest rise in the number of online job postings.
- Across the country, indexes rose in all provinces except Quebec, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia.
- Among occupations, despite gains across all categories, job postings were mostly down by over 10 per cent on an annual basis. The only exception was the category for occupations in education, law, and social, community, and government services. Online job postings for this occupational category, which encompasses public sector roles outside health services, remained close to the peak recorded in spring 2022.
- Even as online job postings rose, our measure of labour tightness fell at the national level as the number of unemployed workers climbed upward. Labour market conditions continue to become less tight as dynamics between demand and supply in the labour market shift.
Insights
- The relatively small increase in online job postings in August is at odds with the downward trend that had emerged over recent months. Declining labour market tightness suggests that finding workers is becoming less of a challenge. At the same time, wage growth is decelerating, slowly but surely. Having endured a protracted period of historically tight labour market conditions, some firms may now feel more optimistic about finding workers to fill vacancies. However, given our near-term forecast of slowing economic growth, we do not expect to see a sustained rebound in labour demand until economic conditions brighten.
- This month, we focus on the western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. Despite edging upward in August, online postings have fallen steadily in British Columbia through most of 2023 and are now roughly in line with pre-pandemic levels. Lower hiring activity is translating into weak employment growth, particularly in construction and in-person services. While tightness in B.C.’s labour market is easing, historically the province has one of the tightest labour markets in the country. Housing affordability is a significant challenge in many parts of B.C. and acts as a push factor to an increasingly mobile labour force as well as would-be international and interprovincial migrants.
- In Alberta, job postings remain well above the pre-pandemic level. Resilience in the job posting numbers is a sign that firms are looking to capitalize on the significant flow of workers into the province. Alberta is on track to record population growth 2023, among the highest in the country. Better affordability in Calgary and Edmonton relative to several other major Canadian cities is proving to be a powerful draw.
Canadian Hiring Index Data
The Canadian Hiring Index is created by The Conference Board of Canada and powered by data collected by Vicinity Jobs. The index provides insight into changes in the volume of online job postings across different geographic areas, industries, and occupations over time. Job posting data are collected from company websites and online job boards. Updates to the index are published on the third Thursday of each month, and historical data is available starting from January 2018.
Online job postings form a subset of all job vacancies in the economy. Upward movements in the CHI represent a gross increase in employment demand, which is the sum of newly created jobs and postings that arise due to job turnover.
The onset of the pandemic and ensuing public health measures had a significant impact on employment demand in Canada, made evident by the sharp drop in the index in the spring of 2020 and the subsequent marked uptick upon the removal of most pandemic restrictions in the spring of 2022.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.