Provincial Outlook

Rising Rates Hit Home

Updated: September 21, 2022  |  Français

Woman staring down and focusing at a laptop; transport truck driving down highway above the water Woman staring down and focusing at a laptop; transport truck driving down highway above the water Woman staring down and focusing at a laptop

After an extended period in coasting mode, the Bank of Canada has put interest rates in gear and stomped on the accelerator. Along with the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), the Bank’s goal is to bring inflation to heel before it becomes more embedded in the psyche of businesses and consumers. With luck, the two financial institutions have gotten the timing right.

War still rages in Ukraine, but the shock has passed as disruptions to the delicate balance of world trade become better understood. Europe’s economy remains particularly at risk as the prospect of an energy supply crunch looms for powerhouse industries and for the public fearful of heating their homes this winter. Canadian businesses tied to Europe are more exposed to the downsides.

  • Overview
  • Newfoundland and Labrador
  • Prince Edward Island
  • Nova Scotia
  • New Brunswick
  • Quebec
  • Ontario
  • Manitoba
  • Saskatchewan
  • Alberta
  • British Columbia

Key findings

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The Bank of Canada’s inflation fighting efforts will soon see results but will also quell economic output.

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Positive signs in manufacturing, as well as the hospitality and recreation sectors returning to a more normal state of affairs, will help Ontario and British Columbia.

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Oil and gas will propel the Saskatchewan and Alberta economies through 2024.

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Even a modest crop year on the Prairies will be a vast improvement from drought-stricken 2021.

Provincial two-year outlooks

Forthcoming

Forging Forward Despite Risks

Issue briefing   |  11-min read
September 7, 2022
Purchase issue briefing ($705)

Forthcoming

Through the Looking Glass

Issue briefing  |  14-min read
August 31, 2022
Purchase issue briefing ($705)

Forthcoming

Growth Accelerating in the Keystone Province

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
September 14, 2022
Purchase issue briefing ($705)

Forthcoming

Oil Production Down but Better Days Ahead

Issue briefing  |  13-min read
September 7, 2022
Purchase issue briefing ($705)

Forthcoming

Business and Consumers Push Through Slowdown

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
September 1, 2022
Purchase issue briefing ($705)

Forthcoming

Forthcoming

Nowhere to Go but Up

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
September 9, 2022
Purchase issue briefing ($705)

Previous releases

Man in thought with his hand against his chin, looking at a laptop

Rising Prices and Falling Dominoes

Domestic economic challenges related to the pandemic’s Omicron wave are starting to fade and are being replaced by challenges from afar.

Impact paper  |  29-min read
May 31, 2022

Alberta

Wild Rose Country Buckling Up for Another Strong Year

11-min read  |  June 14, 2022

British Columbia

The Fog of War Drifts West

14-min read  |  June 7, 2022

Manitoba

Brighter Days Ahead

12-min read  |  June 15, 2022

New Brunswick

Challenges Remain but Solid Growth in the Cards

9-min read  |  June 7, 2022

Newfoundland & Labrador

Oil and Gas Sector Restraining Recovery

13-min read  |  June 16, 2022

Nova Scotia

Recovery Continues but Uncertainties on the Horizon

11-min read  |  June 9, 2022

Ontario

Investment Shines Through the Clouds

12-min read  |  June 14, 2022

Prince Edward Island

Solid Growth Expected Despite Inflation Remaining Red Hot

11-min read  |  June 8, 2022

Quebec

A Steadied Ship, Quebec Looks Beyond Pandemic Recovery

14-min read  |  June 14, 2022

Saskatchewan

Light at the End of the Tunnel

11-min read  |  June 21, 2022

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