Leading Indicator of Industry Profitability: October 2018

The Conference Board of Canada, October 11, 2018
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The monthly Leading Indicator of Industry Profitability is constructed from high frequency data series. The indicators are designed to be predictive of movements in corporate profitability six months hence. An industry leading index is created for the economy as a whole, as well as for 49 individual sectors within the economy, thus providing coverage for most of the private business activity that takes place in Canada.

Document Highlights

  • The Conference Board of Canada’s Leading Indicator of Industry Profitability fell 0.1 points in September, marking its first decline in over a year.
  • Weaker equity values on the Toronto Stock Exchange, particularly for Canadian companies in the financial and energy sectors, suggest weaker profitability in the near term.
  • A new trilateral trade agreement among Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. to replace NAFTA will stabilize supply chains and reduce a key source of uncertainty for businesses within the sector. To the extent that firms resume delayed investment, this could lead to stronger production and profitability in the future.

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