EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Chapter 1—U.S. Outlook
- Overview
- Assumptions
- Aggregate Demand
Chapter 2—Demographics
- Rapid Aging of Canada’s Population Shapes Demographic Outlook
- Baby Boomers Driving Demographic Change
- Population Aging: Not Exclusive to Canada
- Components of Population Growth
Chapter 3—Monetary Policy
- Slow Road to Monetary Policy Normalization
- The Goal of Monetary Policy
- Adoption of the Inflation Control Target
- Monetary Policy in the Era of Price Stability
- Real Interest Rates
- Nominal Interest Rates
- The Canadian Dollar
Chapter 4—Fiscal Policy
- No Quick Fix for Budget Woes
- Historical Perspective
- Federal Forecast
- Provincial Outlook
- Municipal Governments
- Canada’s Social Safety Net
- Health Care Spending Pressures Mount
- Education
- Social Assistance
- Public Pension and Old Age Security Programs
- Employment Insurance
Chapter 5—Energy
- Changing Global Environment Hurting Long-Term Outlook for Energy Sector
- Long-Term Global Energy Outlook
- Oil Markets
- Natural Gas
- Investment
- Production
- Trade
Chapter 6—Labour Markets
- Population Aging Drives Labour Market Trends
- Generations in Canada
- Baby Boomers Delay Retirement
- Echo Boomers and Millennials Stand to Benefit
- The Changing Face of the Labour Force
- Labour Force Growth and Participation
- Key Labour Market Outcomes
- Productivity
- Natural Rate of Unemployment
- The Changing Shape of Work in Canada
- The Role of Business Cycles—A Historical Perspective
Chapter 7—Potential Output
- Potential Output Growth Set to Slow
- Modest Long-Term Growth for Potential Output
- Gap Closure and Its Implications
Chapter 8—Aggregate Demand
- Consumption
- Housing
- Business Investment
- Engineering Investment
- Government Spending
- International Trade
Appendix A—Forecast Tables