Oil Production Down but Better Days Ahead: Newfoundland and Labrador's Three-Year Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, September 7, 2022
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Newfoundland and Labrador examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Newfoundland and Labrador’s real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 0.5 per cent this year before expanding by 2.9 per cent in 2023 and 2.2 per cent in 2024.
  • A factor behind the lacklustre performance is that oil production remains constrained despite oil prices at plus-$90 per barrel.
  • Employment increased by around 3.1 per cent last year while a similar gain is anticipated for 2022 as well. Unemployment, while declining, will still remain at double-digit levels through 2026.
  • If inflation does not ease over the next few months, the boost to spending from excess savings will quickly erode.
  • The province’s housing market is doing well despite higher mortgage rates, but we expect housing starts to cool and then decline in the second half of this year.
  • The province plans to balance the books some time over the medium term, but this will be challenging due to weak economic growth and rising expenditures on healthcare.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Newfoundland and Labrador Snapshot
Overview
Labour Markets, Income, and Consumption
Business Investment
Trade
Government
Methodology

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