Trade on the Comeback Trail: Canada’s Two-Year International Trade Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 15 pages, April 12, 2022
Issue briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy, focusing on international trade, including projections for merchandise and non-merchandise exports and imports. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

Document Highlights

  • Supply bottlenecks and shortages will persist well into 2022 but will not prevent Canada’s merchandise exports sector from getting back on track over the near term.
  • Softer domestic demand will moderate merchandise import activity over the next two years.
  • With exports outperforming imports over the next two years, net trade will again become a positive contributor to real GDP growth.
  • Trade in services will lead the charge in growth over the next two years.
  • Canada’s current account gets a big lift from the real trade balance and terms of trade in 2022.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
International Trade Snapshot
Trade Outlook
U.S. Outlook
Canada’s Merchandise Exports Get Back on Track With Some Help From the U.S
Merchandise Imports Growth Moderates
Non-merchandise Trade Activity Set to Take Off
Current Account Surplus Gets a Boost in 2022

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