Inflated Risks on the Path Ahead: Provincial Two-Year Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 22 pages, March 15, 2022
Impact Paper
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

  • COVID-19’s Omicron variant has blown through the economy faster than other strains, but a fractious public has made it a more difficult journey.
  • Although driven by supply chain crunches, high inflation has settled into the minds of more producers and wage earners. It will be tougher for central banks to tame.
  • Geopolitical tensions will apply further pressure on global trade and business and consumer sentiment, but will push up commodity prices.
  • Alberta and Saskatchewan will lead the country in growth this year and next, largely because prices for energy products and other key commodities have recovered strongly.
  • Manitoba is set to rebound from a difficult drought year in 2021. Infrastructure and housing spending will boost prospects there, too.
  • Ontario’s economy had been held back by some of Canada’s toughest COVID-19 control measures. Now, consumers are poised to give a strong boost to the service sector in 2022.
  • This year, British Columbia is not likely to face the kind of heat and flood woes it did in 2021. We also expect pent-up tourism demand to make the province a popular destination once again.
  • Quebec will see healthy growth this year and next, although slightly below the Canadian average because it rebounded more strongly earlier on in 2021.
  • Growth will be modest in the Atlantic provinces, though a hoped-for recovery in tourism could help boost prospects.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Newfoundland and Labrador
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
British Columbia
Appendix A—Methodology

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