Inflated Risks on the Path Ahead: Provincial Two-Year Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 22 pages, March 15, 2022
Impact Paper
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

  • COVID-19’s Omicron variant has blown through the economy faster than other strains, but a fractious public has made it a more difficult journey.
  • Although driven by supply chain crunches, high inflation has settled into the minds of more producers and wage earners. It will be tougher for central banks to tame.
  • Geopolitical tensions will apply further pressure on global trade and business and consumer sentiment, but will push up commodity prices.
  • Alberta and Saskatchewan will lead the country in growth this year and next, largely because prices for energy products and other key commodities have recovered strongly.
  • Manitoba is set to rebound from a difficult drought year in 2021. Infrastructure and housing spending will boost prospects there, too.
  • Ontario’s economy had been held back by some of Canada’s toughest COVID-19 control measures. Now, consumers are poised to give a strong boost to the service sector in 2022.
  • This year, British Columbia is not likely to face the kind of heat and flood woes it did in 2021. We also expect pent-up tourism demand to make the province a popular destination once again.
  • Quebec will see healthy growth this year and next, although slightly below the Canadian average because it rebounded more strongly earlier on in 2021.
  • Growth will be modest in the Atlantic provinces, though a hoped-for recovery in tourism could help boost prospects.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Overview
Newfoundland and Labrador
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
British Columbia
Appendix A—Methodology

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