New Pipeline Capacity Delivers Boost to Recovery: Alberta’s Two-Year Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 14 pages, November 29, 2021
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Alberta’s economy is expected to grow by 5.7 per cent this year. A stronger rebound of 6.1 per cent is forecast for 2022, before moderating to 2.9 per cent in 2023.
  • The solid rebound is partially linked to the recovery in world oil prices that has increased activity in the oil patch.
  • Investment spending in the oil patch will struggle as energy companies focus on improving their balance sheets following the devastating collapse in oil prices at the height of the pandemic.
  • Alberta residents have ramped up their spending due to a combination of rising employment and the savings built up over the course of 2020 when the economy was locked down.
  • Higher oil prices led to a sharp reduction in the fiscal deficit from 2021 projections. But a balanced budget will remain elusive owing to the aging population’s higher health care expenditures.
  • Alberta’s oil exports will benefit from rising United States demand, solid gains in production, and increased pipeline capacity.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Alberta Snapshot
Overview
Participation Rate Lags Recovery
Alberta Consumers Ready to Spend But Some Products in Short Supply
Oil Prices Will Remain Elevated at Over $70 a Barrel
Investment—Oil And Gas Producers Hold the Line
Higher Oil Prices Help Fiscal Situation ... For Now
Export Recovery Boosted By Rising Oil Demand
Methodology

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