A Better Year Ahead for Oil and Gas: Canada’s Two-Year Energy Outlook—April 2021

The Conference Board of Canada, 14 pages, April 28, 2021
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on energy. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

Document Highlights

  • World crude oil prices climbed back to their pre-pandemic levels in February. We expect oil prices to remain in the US$60–$70 per barrel range through 2021.
  • The rollout of vaccine programs globally and the massive U.S. fiscal stimulus will support a strong recovery in oil demand this year. As well, production decisions by OPEC+ and U.S. shale producers will continue to be supportive of oil prices.
  • By December, Canadian oil production had returned to its year-ago levels. Oil sands production in Alberta in particular has seen a strong recovery.
  • Canadian heavy crude producers supplying U.S. refineries are benefiting from the reduced competition from Venezuela and Mexico. At the same time, U.S. refineries made significant investments in new capacity in 2019.
  • The Trans Mountain and Enbridge Line 3 pipeline expansion projects continue and should add significant takeaway capacity over the next few years.
  • Final investment decisions on several LNG projects are expected in 2021. Meanwhile, Canada’s offshore oil industry is in a more precarious position after a string of major projects were postponed last year.

Table of Contents

Key findings

Energy snapshot

Overview Prices have recovered to pre-pandemic levels

Oil companies focus on improving costs

Fast recovery for Canadian oil sands production

Methodology

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