Pandemic Leads to Leaner Industries, Fewer Workers: Alberta’s Two-Year Outlook—December 2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 10 pages, January 11, 2021
Issue briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Alberta will suffer the largest recession among Canadian provinces in 2020, with real GDP set to decline by 7.7 per cent.
  • The second wave of COVID-19 is leading to strict measures being reinstated across the world, hurting gasoline demand. Oil producers will have to cope with lower prices until the second wave is contained.
  • Business investment is set to bounce back by 14.3 per cent in 2021 as oil sands production increases and construction on larger projects outside the energy sector picks up again. Government stimulus spending will provide a shot in the arm for construction activity.
  • Oil production will not fully recover until late 2022, leaving adequate room in current pipelines to export without bottlenecks. Work continues on the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) project and the Canadian portion of the Keystone XL (KXL) project.
  • Consolidation of businesses is expected to continue over the next year, following the merger of Cenovus and Husky, two major oil companies.

Table of Contents

Key findings

Alberta snapshot

Overview

Consumer outlook

Investment outlook

Government outlook

Trade and energy outlook

Methodology

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