Provincial Outlook Executive Summary: Winter 2019 (WEB)

The Conference Board of Canada, February 19, 2019
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada's provinces.

Document Highlights

  • Canada’s economic growth is expected to moderate to 1.9 per cent this year but then improve slightly to 2.1 per cent in 2020.
  • Growth will weaken in several provinces this year and next, including in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, and Alberta.
  • Alberta’s economy will be hurt by the cuts in oil production and the declines in energy investment.
  • Prince Edward Island will be the only province this year where economic growth surpasses the 3.0 per cent mark. The economic outlook is brighter for the rest of Atlantic Canada as well, thanks to more stability in the service sector and stronger exports in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and to rising oil production in Newfoundland and Labrador.
  • Saskatchewan will get a boost from increased external demand for key commodities, such as potash, oil, and agricultural products.
  • British Columbia is forecast to post steady growth in the mid-2 per cent range over the next few years, as investments in the energy sector help to offset a correction in the housing market.

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