Future Care for Canadian Seniors: A Status Quo Forecast

The Conference Board of Canada, 102 pages, November 3, 2015
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The rising number of Canadian seniors who will need continuing care supports over the next few decades has pressing implications for public spending, the labour market, and housing and institutional infrastructure.

Document Highlights

By 2026, over 2.4 million Canadians age 65+ will require paid and unpaid continuing care supports—up 71 per cent from 2011. By 2046, this number will reach nearly 3.3 million.

Spending on continuing care for seniors will increase from $29.3 billion in 2011 to $184.2 billion in 2046. With nearly two-thirds of this spending provided by governments, spending growth will significantly outpace revenue growth for most provinces.

Labour demand growth for the continuing care sector will also far exceed general labour force growth.

The reliance on unpaid caregivers and volunteers to provide continuing care supports will grow dramatically and could compound the perceived level of unmet or under-met needs of seniors.

Responding to these needs in an efficient and sustainable manner will require collaboration among the diverse mix of public and private stakeholders that make up the continuing care sector.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Chapter 1— Introduction

Chapter 2— Projecting Continuing Care Needs of Seniors

  • Background
  • The Situation Today

Chapter 3— Continuing Care Needs of Seniors—Base-Case Projection

  • The Situation in the Future

Chapter 4— Summary of Projection

  • Financial Implications
  • Human Resource Implications
  • Infrastructure Implications

Chapter 5— Conclusion

  • Over the Short Term
  • Over the Medium Term

Chapter 6— Limitations

Appendix A— Methodology Used to Assemble the Current Economic Footprint of Continuing Care Supports for Seniors in Canada

  • Home Living Indicators
  • Community Living Indicators
  • Facility Living Indicators

Appendix B— Demographic Assumptions Used in the Status Quo Forecast of Continuing Care Supports for Seniors in Canada

Appendix C— Bibliography

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