The Next Recovery Phase: Canada’s Two-Year Government Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 12 pages, July 28, 2022
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on government. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

Document Highlights

  • As the majority of support measures are removed, the federal government is now fully in the next recovery phase.
  • Budget 2022, with its improved revenue outlook, is spending on a new national dental program as well as providing more defence spending in light of the Ukraine–Russia war.
  • The budget also provided new incentives for first-time homebuyers and embarked on the difficult journey of bolstering housing supply.
  • Latest estimates peg the deficit at $53 billion for 2022–23. This is a considerable improvement over 2020–21’s shortfall of $330 billion, but the federal government still faces a difficult road to balance.
  • The recent run-up in resource prices for resource-rich provinces is leading to an improvement in the collective provincial fiscal position, but structural issues will continue to weigh on the fiscal outlook.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Government Snapshot
Overview
Federal Fiscal Outlook
Provincial and Municipal Fiscal Outlooks
Government Investment
Methodology

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