A Complicated Recovery: Canada’s Travel Markets Outlook to 2026

The Conference Board of Canada, May 3, 2022
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This is a forecast and interactive dashboard of Canadian tourism. It explores traveller behaviour, the role of public health, and impacts on industry businesses—as well as how the nature of Canadian tourism could permanently change.

Document Highlights

  • Canada is opening for business again and tourism is expected to fully recover over the next several years. But sudden shocks can quickly restrain tourism activity. The spread of the Omicron variant and the rebound of restrictions underscore the precarity of the sector’s recovery.
  • Labour shortages in the tourism industry will hinder growth and could reduce the quality and range of services that visitors can enjoy.
  • Rising prices and affordability will weigh on travel decision-making. Total nominal visit expenditures in Canada are forecast to recover by 2024, partly due to the magnitude of travel price inflation.
  • Consumer confidence has trended downward in recent months. But we expect domestic travel to remain relatively strong this year and in 2023.
  • Staycation incentives across many provinces will encourage Canadians to travel closer to home. Domestic visit levels will fully recover by 2024.
  • Overnight visits from the United States will only recover to their pre-pandemic range by 2025, primarily due to lower levels of business travel.
  • Overseas visits to Canada will be the last to bounce back. Total overnight overseas visits will reach their pre-pandemic range by 2024 but will not fully surpass their pre-pandemic level until 2026.
  • Enduring pandemic effects and climate change will affect tourism activity over the forecast period.

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