Recovery on Track: Nova Scotia’s Two-Year Outlook—March 2022

The Conference Board of Canada, 14 pages, March 25, 2022
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Nova Scotia examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Real GDP in Nova Scotia is slated to rise 1.9 per cent this year, with another 2.1 per cent expansion forecast for 2023. Last year, the economy expanded by close to 5 per cent.
  • The economy has benefited from strong interprovincial migration during the pandemic, thanks in part to the ongoing popularity of remote working. However, migration will slow down through the medium term.
  • Nova Scotians will likely dip into the savings they built up during the pandemic as they try to maintain spending in the face of weaker gains in disposable income now that federal income support programs are being wound down.
  • Inflation remains a wild card in the outlook for household spending in Nova Scotia. We expect inflation to slow down in the second half of this year, but there are still huge risks to the outlook.  
  • The provincial government will run an unexpected fiscal surplus in fiscal 2021–22, thanks partly to higher tax collections. The government will, however, remain cautious when preparing its next budget in the spring.
  • Real exports will make a strong recovery over the near term following the economic devastation caused by the pandemic. Service exports will lead the way as visitors from the United States return.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Nova Scotia Snapshot
Overview
Labour Markets, Income, and Consumption
Business Investment
Housing
Government
Exports
Methodology

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