Omicron Variant Won’t Derail U.S. Recovery: U.S. Outlook to 2026

The Conference Board of Canada, 18 pages, February 15, 2022
Impact paper
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This quarterly report focuses on the latest economic developments in the U.S. economy, tracking trends in labour, consumer, energy and housing markets, and examining industries and regions. Monetary and fiscal policy assumptions are also included.

Document Highlights

  • U.S. real GDP is expected to increase by 4.37 per cent this year on the heels of a 5.6 per cent gain in 2021.
  • Growth will be led by household spending as the underlying fundamentals for the consumer, including rising wages and employment, remain solid.
  • The Omicron variant is a major downside risk to the outlook, but we expect it to be less disruptive than previous variants of COVID-19.
  • Americans have been quitting their jobs in droves because of the desire to pursue other career options, concerns about health, higher wages in other sectors, and a lack of daycare.
  • Deficits in the $1-trillion range will persist over the near term but should decline below this level by 2026.

Table of Contents

Key findings
Overview
Aggregate Demand
Financial Markets
Fiscal Policy
Labour Markets
Where Have All the Semiconductors Gone?
Appendix A: Methodology

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