US View: US Recovery Charges Forward, but Uncertainty Persists

The Conference Board, Inc., 9 pages, October 12, 2021
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Steady improvements in new COVID-19 cases rates have stalled. The Delta variant becoming the dominant strain in the United States poses a possible risk to the improving outlook, but so far the risk is limited.

Document Highlights

Continuous improvements in COVID-19 rates have stalled as the Delta variant became the dominant strain in the United States in July, but economic momentum in the second half of 2021 will remain strong. Real GDP should grow by 7.8 percent (annualized rate) in the third quarter. However, concerns about inflation are growing. While prices should continue to rise throughout 2021, we do not anticipate run-away inflation. Further upside for economic growth is possible from 2022 onward if an infrastructure package is passed and implemented.

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