Recovery Gains Momentum: Canada’s Two-Year International Trade Outlook—April 2021

The Conference Board of Canada, 15 pages, April 28, 2021
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on international trade. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

Document Highlights

  • Strong U.S. demand will boost Canadian merchandise exports over the next two years.
  • Once the threat of the pandemic retreats and restrictions are eased, domestic demand will bounce back strongly, firing up the merchandise import sector.
  • With COVID-19 variant infections on the rise in many parts of the world, tight travel restrictions will not be lifted any time soon. This will continue to weigh on non-merchandise trade activity for a good part of 2021.
  • The current account deficit will improve somewhat in 2021 but will then deepen again in 2022.

Table of Contents

Key findings

International trade snapshot


Trade outlook

Massive stimulus fires up U.S. outlook

Merchandise exports gets a major boost from U.S. demand Merchandise imports looking up

Recovery in travel services dragged out

Current account balance on a roller coaster ride


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